Hansa Biopharma AB (publ) (STO:HNSA) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Hansa Biopharma AB (publ) (STO:HNSA), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Statutory earnings fell substantially short of expectations, with revenues of kr34m missing forecasts by 32%. Losses exploded, with a per-share loss of kr3.30 some 21% below prior forecasts. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Hansa Biopharma

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Hansa Biopharma's four analysts is for revenues of kr223.6m in 2024. This would reflect a major 37% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 9.1% to kr10.74 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr252.1m and losses of kr10.86 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also making no real change to the loss per share numbers.

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr100.00, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite a downwards adjustment to forecast revenue next year. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hansa Biopharma at kr175 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr46.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Hansa Biopharma's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 87% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 59% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Hansa Biopharma is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr100.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Hansa Biopharma analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 5 warning signs for Hansa Biopharma (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com