Genovis AB (publ.) Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Genovis AB (publ.) (STO:GENO) just released its latest yearly report and things are not looking great. Unfortunately, Genovis AB (publ.) delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of kr159m were 18% below expectations, and statutory earnings per share of kr0.94 missed estimates by 30%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Genovis AB (publ.)

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from three analysts covering Genovis AB (publ.) is for revenues of kr154.8m in 2024. This implies a noticeable 2.7% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 39% to kr0.57 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr160.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of kr0.64 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 9.0% to kr50.50, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Genovis AB (publ.) analyst has a price target of kr63.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr38.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.7% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 28% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 10% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Genovis AB (publ.) is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Genovis AB (publ.)'s future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Genovis AB (publ.). Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Genovis AB (publ.) going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Genovis AB (publ.) that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.