Further weakness as Storytel (STO:STORY B) drops 15% this week, taking five-year losses to 67%

Statistically speaking, long term investing is a profitable endeavour. But no-one is immune from buying too high. For example the Storytel AB (publ) (STO:STORY B) share price dropped 68% over five years. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 22% in the last 90 days. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Storytel isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

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In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Storytel moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.

The modest 1.5% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 12% a year in the five year period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Storytel will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Storytel has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 13% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 11% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

Storytel is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Swedish exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.