Holmen AB (publ)'s (STO:HOLM B) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking

Holmen AB (publ)'s (STO:HOLM B) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 15.5x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in Sweden, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 22x and even P/E's above 39x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

Holmen could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to get any better. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

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Keen to find out how analysts think Holmen's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is Holmen's Growth Trending?

Holmen's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 19% decrease to the company's bottom line. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 49% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 6.5% per annum as estimated by the five analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 14% growth per annum, that's a disappointing outcome.

With this information, we are not surprised that Holmen is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Bottom Line On Holmen's P/E

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

As we suspected, our examination of Holmen's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Holmen (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Holmen, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.