Holmen AB (publ) Just Recorded A 6.8% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

It's been a good week for Holmen AB (publ) (STO:HOLM B) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 3.7% to kr412. The result was positive overall - although revenues of kr5.9b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Holmen surprised by delivering a statutory profit of kr4.70 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Holmen

Taking into account the latest results, Holmen's eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be kr23.4b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be kr18.68, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr23.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr18.36 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at kr440. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Holmen, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr476 and the most bearish at kr410 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Holmen is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Holmen's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 1.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.3% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Holmen is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr440, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Holmen going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Holmen .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.