Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Boliden AB (publ) (STO:BOL) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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What Is Boliden's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Boliden had kr5.99b of debt at September 2021, down from kr6.36b a year prior. However, its balance sheet shows it holds kr6.26b in cash, so it actually has kr271.0m net cash.
How Healthy Is Boliden's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Boliden had liabilities of kr11.6b falling due within a year, and liabilities of kr15.6b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of kr6.26b as well as receivables valued at kr4.82b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by kr16.1b.
Since publicly traded Boliden shares are worth a total of kr82.7b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Boliden also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.
On top of that, Boliden grew its EBIT by 47% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Boliden can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. Boliden may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Looking at the most recent three years, Boliden recorded free cash flow of 48% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Summing up
While Boliden does have more liabilities than liquid assets, it also has net cash of kr271.0m. And it impressed us with its EBIT growth of 47% over the last year. So is Boliden's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 2 warning signs with Boliden (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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About OM:BOL
Boliden
Engages in the extracting, producing, and recycling of base metals in Sweden, Finland, other Nordic region, Germany, the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and internationally.
Undervalued with solid track record.