Stock Analysis

Boliden (STO:BOL) jumps 11% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind five-year shareholder returns

Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, the Boliden AB (publ) (STO:BOL) share price is up 46% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 21% (ignoring dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 12% in the last year.

On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, Boliden achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 8.4% per year. So the EPS growth rate is rather close to the annualized share price gain of 8% per year. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
OM:BOL Earnings Per Share Growth September 30th 2025

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Boliden's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

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What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered Boliden's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for Boliden shareholders, and that cash payout contributed to why its TSR of 80%, over the last 5 years, is better than the share price return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Boliden has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 12% in the last twelve months. However, that falls short of the 12% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Boliden is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

Boliden is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Swedish exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Boliden might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.