Earnings Miss: Alleima AB (publ) Missed EPS By 25% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Alleima AB (publ) (STO:ALLEI), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its second-quarter results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at kr4.8b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 25%, coming in at just kr0.81 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from five analysts covering Alleima is for revenues of kr18.7b in 2025. This implies a perceptible 3.9% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 12% to kr4.00 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr19.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr5.81 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.

Check out our latest analysis for Alleima

The consensus price target fell 5.0% to kr80.00, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alleima at kr90.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr69.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Alleima is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Alleima's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 7.6% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 4.3% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Alleima is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Alleima. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Alleima's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Alleima going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Alleima's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.