Humble Group AB (publ) Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The quarterly results for Humble Group AB (publ) (STO:HUMBLE) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenue of kr2.0b surpassed estimates by 5.3%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 78% below expectations at kr0.01 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Humble Group's four analysts is for revenues of kr8.12b in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 2.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 64% to kr0.31. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr8.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr0.34 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Humble Group

The average price target fell 7.3% to kr10.80, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Humble Group analyst has a price target of kr13.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr9.40. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Humble Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 47% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Humble Group is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Humble Group. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Humble Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Humble Group that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.