Humana AB (publ) (STO:HUM) Released Earnings Last Week And Analysts Lifted Their Price Target To kr39.50

Humana AB (publ) (STO:HUM) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.6% to kr33.50 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of kr2.5b and statutory earnings per share of kr0.01. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Humana

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Humana's twin analysts is for revenues of kr10.1b in 2024. This reflects a modest 4.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 54% to kr3.27. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr10.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr3.93 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 5.3% to kr39.50, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Humana's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Humana's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 9.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.8% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 12% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Humana is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Humana's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Humana going out as far as 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Humana (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com