Humana AB (publ) (STO:HUM) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Shareholders might have noticed that Humana AB (publ) (STO:HUM) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.9% to kr24.05 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of kr9.7b and statutory earnings per share of kr3.72. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Humana

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from three analysts covering Humana is for revenues of kr8.76b in 2024. This implies a considerable 9.9% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 29% to kr4.74. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr8.84b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr4.57 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Humana's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of kr33.50, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Humana, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr40.00 and the most bearish at kr27.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Humana shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Humana's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 9.9% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 7.4% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 12% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Humana is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Humana's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Humana's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr33.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Humana going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Humana you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.