AAK AB (publ.) Just Beat Revenue Estimates By 5.1%

Shareholders might have noticed that AAK AB (publ.) (STO:AAK) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.8% to kr249 in the past week. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit kr12b. Statutory earnings fell 2.0% short of analyst forecasts, reaching kr3.58 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on AAK AB (publ.) after the latest results.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about AAK AB (publ.). View them for free.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from seven analysts covering AAK AB (publ.) is for revenues of kr43.6b in 2025. This implies a measurable 4.4% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 3.2% to kr13.18 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr46.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr14.30 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

Check out our latest analysis for AAK AB (publ.)

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of kr331, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on AAK AB (publ.)'s valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on AAK AB (publ.), with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr420 and the most bearish at kr245 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.9% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 12% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.3% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - AAK AB (publ.) is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at kr331, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AAK AB (publ.) going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that AAK AB (publ.) is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.