Announcement • Feb 03
Concordia Maritime AB (publ) to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Feb 29, 2024 Concordia Maritime AB (publ) announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Feb 29, 2024 New Risk • Dec 12
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Swedish stocks, typically moving 15% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (15% average weekly change). High level of non-cash earnings (66% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (kr459.2m market cap, or US$43.9m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 12
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 53% After last week's 53% share price gain to kr9.62, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 2.9x. Average trailing P/E is 5x in the Oil and Gas industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 9.8% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Nov 17
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: kr0.43 loss per share (vs kr0.48 loss in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: kr0.43 loss per share (improved from kr0.48 loss in 3Q 2022). Revenue: kr20.7m (down 83% from 3Q 2022). Net loss: kr20.5m (loss narrowed 10% from 3Q 2022). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 43% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Aug 25
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 20% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (20% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (kr286.4m market cap, or US$25.9m). Announcement • Aug 25
Concordia Maritime AB (publ) to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Feb 08, 2024 Concordia Maritime AB (publ) announced that they will report Q4, 2023 results on Feb 08, 2024 Reported Earnings • May 07
First quarter 2023 earnings released First quarter 2023 results: Revenue: kr95.6m (down 23% from 1Q 2022). Net income: kr3.00m (up kr33.5m from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 3.1% (up from net loss in 1Q 2022). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 39% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 16% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • May 06
Concordia Maritime AB (Publ) Elects Stefan Brocker as Chairman of the Board of Directors Concordia Maritime AB (publ) at the Annual General Meeting held on 4 May 2023, Stefan Brocker was elected as the Chairman of the Board of Directors. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 03
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to kr6.80, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 2.6x. Average trailing P/E is 5x in the Oil and Gas industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 36% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Feb 12
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: kr2.58 (vs kr13.84 loss in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: kr2.58 (up from kr13.84 loss in FY 2021). Revenue: kr686.1m (down 2.7% from FY 2021). Net income: kr123.3m (up kr783.7m from FY 2021). Profit margin: 18% (up from net loss in FY 2021). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 40% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 19% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: kr0.48 loss per share (vs kr2.96 loss in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: kr0.48 loss per share (improved from kr2.96 loss in 3Q 2021). Revenue: kr118.2m (down 29% from 3Q 2021). Net loss: kr22.8m (loss narrowed 84% from 3Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 45 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 2 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 2 independent directors. 3 non-independent directors. Independent Director Stefan Brocker was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2007. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Nov 13
Third quarter 2022 earnings released Third quarter 2022 results: Revenue: kr118.2m (down 29% from 3Q 2021). Net loss: kr22.8m (loss narrowed 84% from 3Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 68 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Nov 03
Concordia Maritime AB (publ) Announces Nomination Committee Appointments Concordia Maritime AB (publ) announced that in accordance with the decision at its Annual General Meeting on 5 May 2022, the Nomination Committee shall have three members and consist of representatives of the two largest shareholders as of the last of August the year before the Annual General Meeting and the Chairman of the Board. In accordance with this, the following members have been appointed to serve on the Nomination Committee for the time until a new nomination committee is appointed: Carl-Johan Hagman, Chairman of the Board; Peter Edwall, representing himself; and Karl Swartling, Chairman of the Nomination Committee, representing Stena Sessan (largest shareholder). Reported Earnings • Aug 18
Second quarter 2022 earnings released Second quarter 2022 results: Revenue: kr180.9m (down 13% from 2Q 2021). Net income: kr35.7m (up kr125.4m from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 20% (up from net loss in 2Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 75 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Board Change • May 18
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 2 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 2 independent directors. 3 non-independent directors. Independent Director Stefan Brocker was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2007. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • May 06
First quarter 2022 earnings released First quarter 2022 results: Revenue: kr124.1m (down 31% from 1Q 2021). Net loss: kr30.5m (loss narrowed 75% from 1Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 60 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • Apr 18
Full year 2021 earnings released: kr13.84 loss per share (vs kr1.38 loss in FY 2020) Full year 2021 results: kr13.84 loss per share (down from kr1.38 loss in FY 2020). Revenue: kr704.8m (down 31% from FY 2020). Net loss: kr660.4m (loss widened kr594.4m from FY 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 45 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • Feb 13
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: kr13.84 loss per share (down from kr1.38 loss in FY 2020). Revenue: kr704.8m (down 31% from FY 2020). Net loss: kr660.4m (loss widened kr594.4m from FY 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 46 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Feb 08
Concordia Maritime Launches a Technical Design Study Together with Stena Teknik and a German Consulting Company Specializing in Ship Design Concordia Maritime has launched a technical design study together with Stena Teknik and a German consulting company specialising in ship design. The aim is to investigate the feasibility of converting and adapting a P-MAX vessel for container transportation. The assignment also includes preparation for "basic design" class approval. The container segment has shown strong growth in recent years, driven by disruptions to international logistics as well as more structural factors. According to initial assessments, the P-MAX vessels' two engines, with full redundancy, and other dimensions make them possible to convert to container vessels with a capacity of approximately 2,100 TEU. It should be stressed that there are a number of technical and market challenges to convert and adapt P-MAX tankers to container ships and there is therefore a risk that the study will lead to that the project will not be concluded. The technical design study is expected to be completed by the end of second quarter 2022 and - if the result is positive - it will be followed by discussions with shipyards and possible charterers to explore potential interest. A full conversion is expected to take approximately 3-5 months. Breakeven Date Change • Nov 24
No longer forecast to breakeven The analyst covering Concordia Maritime no longer expects the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of kr33.0m in 2022. New forecast suggests the company will make a loss of kr22.0m in 2023. Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 10
Director recently sold kr63k worth of stock On the 4th of November, Henrik Hallin sold around 10k shares on-market at roughly kr6.33 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was the only on-market transaction from insiders over the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Nov 09
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: kr2.96 loss per share (vs kr0.75 loss in 3Q 2020) The company reported a poor third quarter result with increased losses, weaker revenues and weaker control over costs. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: kr165.6m (down 21% from 3Q 2020). Net loss: kr141.4m (loss widened 294% from 3Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 29% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 15% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Reported Earnings • Aug 13
Second quarter 2021 earnings released The company reported a poor second quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over costs. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: kr208.5m (down 31% from 2Q 2020). Net loss: kr89.7m (down 417% from profit in 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 73% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Breakeven Date Change • Aug 13
No longer forecast to breakeven The analyst covering Concordia Maritime no longer expects the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of kr49.0m in 2022. New forecast suggests the company will make a loss of kr22.0m in 2023. Reported Earnings • May 01
First quarter 2021 earnings released The company reported a poor first quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over costs. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: kr179.6m (down 49% from 1Q 2020). Net loss: kr121.4m (down kr150.4m from profit in 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 104% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 27
Consensus EPS estimates fall to -kr15.50 The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has deteriorated. 2021 revenue forecast decreased from kr704.0m to kr683.0m. Losses expected to increase from -kr10.48 to -kr15.50. Oil and Gas industry in Sweden expected to see average net income growth of 13% next year. Consensus price target of kr9.00 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at kr9.38 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 25
Full year 2020 earnings released: kr1.38 loss per share (vs kr2.15 loss in FY 2019) The company reported a decent full year result with reduced losses and improved control over expenses, although revenues were weaker. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: kr1.03b (down 10.0% from FY 2019). Net loss: kr66.0m (loss narrowed 36% from FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 96% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 15
New 90-day high: kr9.00 The company is up 3.0% from a price of kr8.76 on 15 December 2020. Underperformed the Swedish market, which is up 14% over the last 90 days. Lagged the Oil and Gas industry, which is up 9.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 08
New 90-day low: kr7.64 The company is down 8.0% from its price of kr8.28 on 10 November 2020. The Swedish market is up 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Oil and Gas industry, which is up 13% over the same period. Executive Departure • Feb 03
Chief Financial Officer has left the company On the 1st of February, Ola Helgesson's tenure as Chief Financial Officer ended after 6.3 years in the role. As of September 2020, Ola personally held only 10.00k shares (kr88k worth at the time). Ola is the only executive to leave the company over the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Jan 30
Full year 2020 earnings released: kr1.38 loss per share (vs kr2.15 loss in FY 2019) The company reported a decent full year result with reduced losses and improved control over expenses, although revenues were weaker. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: kr1.03b (down 10.0% from FY 2019). Net loss: kr66.0m (loss narrowed 36% from FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 96% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Jan 30
Revenue and earnings miss expectations Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 26% compared to a 17% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Sweden. Announcement • Nov 21
Concordia Maritime CFO Ola Helgesson Resigns from His Position Concordia Maritime AB (publ) CFO Ola Helgesson has decided to resign from his position, after six years with the Company, in order to take on new challenges. Ola Helgesson will continue in his current role during the notice period or until a successor is in place. Concordia Maritime will immediately begin the process of recruiting a new CFO. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 04
Earnings beat expectations, revenue disappoints Revenue missed analyst estimates by 13%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 114%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 21% compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Sweden. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 02
New 90-day low: kr7.70 The company is down 17% from its price of kr9.26 on 04 August 2020. The Swedish market is flat over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the Oil and Gas industry, which is down 22% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 06
New 90-day low: kr8.62 The company is down 12% from its price of kr9.76 on 08 July 2020. The Swedish market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Oil and Gas industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period. Announcement • Oct 05
Concordia Maritime AB to Report First Half, 2010 Results on 08/18/2010 Concordia Maritime AB announced that they will report first half 2, 2010 results on 08/18/2010