Spotlight Group AB (publ)'s (NGM:SPGR) Shares Bounce 28% But Its Business Still Trails The Industry

Spotlight Group AB (publ) (NGM:SPGR) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 28% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 17% in the last twelve months.

Even after such a large jump in price, Spotlight Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.1x might still make it look like a buy right now compared to the Capital Markets industry in Sweden, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 2.9x and even P/S above 11x are quite common. However, the P/S might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

View our latest analysis for Spotlight Group

What Does Spotlight Group's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

For example, consider that Spotlight Group's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps the market believes the recent revenue performance isn't good enough to keep up the industry, causing the P/S ratio to suffer. Those who are bullish on Spotlight Group will be hoping that this isn't the case so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Spotlight Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Spotlight Group would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 18%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 22% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 13% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we are not surprised that Spotlight Group is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/S has reached a floor yet with revenue going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent revenue trends are already weighing down the shares.

What Does Spotlight Group's P/S Mean For Investors?

Despite Spotlight Group's share price climbing recently, its P/S still lags most other companies. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

As we suspected, our examination of Spotlight Group revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term is contributing to its low P/S, given the industry is set to grow. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises either. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 4 warning signs for Spotlight Group (2 don't sit too well with us!) that we have uncovered.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.