Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Angler Gaming (NGM:ANGL)

Investors were disappointed with Angler Gaming plc's (NGM:ANGL) earnings, despite the strong profit numbers. Our analysis uncovered some concerning factors that we believe the market might be paying attention to.

View our latest analysis for Angler Gaming

Examining Cashflow Against Angler Gaming's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Angler Gaming has an accrual ratio of 0.29 for the year to December 2024. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit, suggesting we might want to think twice before putting a lot of weight on the latter. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of €255k, which is significantly less than its profit of €2.38m. At this point we should mention that Angler Gaming did manage to increase its free cash flow in the last twelve months

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Angler Gaming's Profit Performance

Angler Gaming didn't convert much of its profit to free cash flow in the last year, which some investors may consider rather suboptimal. Because of this, we think that it may be that Angler Gaming's statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. But at least holders can take some solace from the 11% EPS growth in the last year. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Angler Gaming at this point in time. When we did our research, we found 4 warning signs for Angler Gaming (1 is significant!) that we believe deserve your full attention.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Angler Gaming's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.