ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, ÅF Pöyry AB (publ) (STO:AF B) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. ÅF Pöyry missed earnings this time around, with kr4.0b revenue coming in 5.2% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of kr1.30 also fell short of expectations by 17%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for ÅF Pöyry

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for ÅF Pöyry from three analysts is for revenues of kr20.2b in 2021 which, if met, would be a modest 3.4% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 53% to kr11.10. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr20.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr11.33 in 2021. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr273, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic ÅF Pöyry analyst has a price target of kr276 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr270. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ÅF Pöyry's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 3.4%, compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ÅF Pöyry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for ÅF Pöyry. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that ÅF Pöyry's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for ÅF Pöyry going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - ÅF Pöyry has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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