Troax Group AB (publ)'s (STO:TROAX) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 38.8x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Sweden, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 22x and even P/E's below 13x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Troax Group certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Check out our latest analysis for Troax Group
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
Troax Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 3.2%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 42% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 5.4% each year as estimated by the one analyst watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 19% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
With this information, we find it concerning that Troax Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Final Word
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
Our examination of Troax Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Troax Group that you need to be mindful of.
You might be able to find a better investment than Troax Group. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a P/E below 20x (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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