Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Troax Group AB (publ) (STO:TROAX) After Its Annual Results

Last week, you might have seen that Troax Group AB (publ) (STO:TROAX) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.4% to kr212 in the past week. Revenues of €279m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at €0.52, missing estimates by 3.6%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Troax Group

Following the latest results, Troax Group's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of €297.2m in 2025. This would be an okay 6.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 27% to €0.66. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €298.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.68 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr260, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Troax Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr280 and the most bearish at kr238 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Troax Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Troax Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.8% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Troax Group is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr260, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Troax Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Troax Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Troax Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.