Trelleborg AB (publ) Just Missed EPS By 5.0%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Trelleborg AB (publ) (STO:TREL B) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 3.6% short of analyst estimates at kr8.6b, and statutory earnings of kr4.03 per share missed forecasts by 5.0%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Trelleborg's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be kr34.9b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be kr15.80, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr34.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr16.30 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Trelleborg

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr384, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Trelleborg at kr430 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr350. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Trelleborg's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 4.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Trelleborg is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Trelleborg. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Trelleborg going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Trelleborg that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.