Systemair AB (publ)'s (STO:SYSR) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 29.6x Systemair AB (publ) (STO:SYSR) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Sweden have P/E ratios under 22x and even P/E's lower than 14x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Systemair's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Systemair

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Systemair.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Systemair's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 52% decrease to the company's bottom line. Regardless, EPS has managed to lift by a handy 23% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the five analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 20% each year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be similar to the 20% each year growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's curious that Systemair's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Systemair currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is only in line with the wider market. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Systemair you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.