NCC (OM:NCC B) Valuation Spotlight After Winning Major Heleneholmsbadet Project in Malmö

NCC (OM:NCC B) is teaming up with Malmo Stadsfastigheter to construct the Heleneholmsbadet swim center in Malmo, under a turnkey contract worth around SEK 475 million. The project highlights NCC's ability to secure sizeable infrastructure deals.

See our latest analysis for NCC.

NCC’s momentum has been building over the past year, with the share price up 32.5% year-to-date and a robust 41% total shareholder return for investors in the past twelve months. News of the SEK 475 million Heleneholmsbadet contract fits into a series of wins that have boosted confidence. The market has recently responded favorably as investors grow more optimistic about NCC’s growth prospects and ability to secure major deals.

If NCC’s recent contract success has you scanning the market for other opportunities, now’s the perfect moment to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With the stock showing strong gains and a wave of confidence following its latest contract win, investors may be wondering if NCC is still undervalued or if the market has already accounted for its future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 4.6% Undervalued

The narrative sets NCC’s fair value at SEK 227.50, just above the last close of SEK 217.00. This suggests the market may be slightly undervaluing the stock. This view is shaped by expectations around financial strength and future earnings stability rather than dramatic growth projections.

The company's strong financial position and balance sheet readiness for selective mergers and acquisitions (M&A) can act as a catalyst for future revenue growth and margin expansion. Positive outlook for key contracting segments such as water treatment, energy generation, and infrastructure suggests potential for sustained revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what’s driving this surprisingly robust price target? The narrative leans heavily on ambitious strategies and stable profit margins. Want to know what numbers and bold financial assumptions underpin that fair value? Find out what expectations analysts are really betting on for NCC’s next chapter.

Result: Fair Value of $227.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are still risks to monitor, including currency headwinds and a challenging property transaction market. These factors could stall revenue growth if conditions worsen.

Find out about the key risks to this NCC narrative.

Another View: SWS DCF Model Adds Perspective

While the prevailing consensus suggests NCC is modestly undervalued, our SWS DCF model actually estimates a fair value of SEK 185.55, which is notably below today’s price of SEK 217. This signals the market may be overestimating future cash flows or earnings stability. Which scenario will play out as reality?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out NCC for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 920 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own NCC Narrative

If you’re not convinced by these valuations or want to reach your own conclusions, you can dig into the figures and shape your own view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your NCC research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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