MilDef Group AB (publ) (STO:MILDEF) Released Earnings Last Week And Analysts Lifted Their Price Target To kr184

Investors in MilDef Group AB (publ) (STO:MILDEF) had a good week, as its shares rose 9.1% to close at kr212 following the release of its annual results. Revenues were in line with expectations, at kr1.2b, while statutory losses ballooned to kr5.43 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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After the latest results, the four analysts covering MilDef Group are now predicting revenues of kr2.42b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 102% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. MilDef Group is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of kr4.66 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr2.41b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr4.67 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for MilDef Group

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 7.8% to kr184. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic MilDef Group analyst has a price target of kr218 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr125. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await MilDef Group shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MilDef Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that MilDef Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 102% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 28% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 15% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect MilDef Group to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for MilDef Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for MilDef Group you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.