MilDef Group AB (publ) Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

MilDef Group AB (publ) (STO:MILDEF) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at kr0.20, some 67% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at kr383m. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on MilDef Group after the latest results.

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Following the latest results, MilDef Group's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr2.34b in 2025. This would be a sizeable 69% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with MilDef Group forecast to report a statutory profit of kr4.46 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr2.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr4.44 in 2025. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

See our latest analysis for MilDef Group

The average price target was steady at kr258even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on MilDef Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr275 and the most bearish at kr239 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MilDef Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting MilDef Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 184% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 23% per annum over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 15% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that MilDef Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for MilDef Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for MilDef Group that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.