Is Doxa (STO:DOXA) A Risky Investment?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Doxa AB (publ) (STO:DOXA) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for Doxa

What Is Doxa's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2024 Doxa had debt of kr3.44b, up from none in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of kr70.6m, its net debt is less, at about kr3.37b.

How Strong Is Doxa's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Doxa had liabilities of kr4.79b falling due within a year, and liabilities of kr944.3m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had kr70.6m in cash and kr583.5m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by kr5.08b.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the kr534.1m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Doxa would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Doxa's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

In the last year Doxa wasn't profitable at an EBIT level, but managed to grow its revenue by 57%, to kr16m. With any luck the company will be able to grow its way to profitability.

Caveat Emptor

Despite the top line growth, Doxa still had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. Its EBIT loss was a whopping kr393m. When you combine this with the very significant balance sheet liabilities mentioned above, we are so wary of it that we are basically at a loss for the right words. Like every long-shot we're sure it has a glossy presentation outlining its blue-sky potential. But the reality is that it is low on liquid assets relative to liabilities, and it burned through kr63m in the last year. So is this a high risk stock? We think so, and we'd avoid it. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example Doxa has 6 warning signs (and 4 which are a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.