Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (STO:ASSA B) After Its Third-Quarter Report

As you might know, ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (STO:ASSA B) recently reported its quarterly numbers. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of kr37b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 2.7% to hit kr3.60 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on ASSA ABLOY after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for ASSA ABLOY

After the latest results, the 20 analysts covering ASSA ABLOY are now predicting revenues of kr157.4b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 6.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 12% to kr15.41. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr157.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr15.47 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of kr341, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic ASSA ABLOY analyst has a price target of kr400 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr284. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ASSA ABLOY's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ASSA ABLOY's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. Compare this to the 14 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while ASSA ABLOY's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ASSA ABLOY going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for ASSA ABLOY that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.