Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Valuation

Is 4200 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4200 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4200 (SAR125.6) is trading above our estimate of fair value (SAR34.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4200 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4200?

Key metric: As 4200 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4200. This is calculated by dividing 4200's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4200's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	39.6x
Earnings	ر.س316.98m
Market Cap	ر.س12.56b

4200 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	25.1x
PEG Ratio	2.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4200's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4200 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	23.9x
4050 Saudi Automotive Services	43.5x	n/a	ر.س4.6b
4190 Jarir Marketing	15.6x	6.3%	ر.س15.2b
4003 United Electronics	15.5x	13.1%	ر.س7.5b
4165 Al Majed for Oud	21x	11.1%	ر.س3.7b
4200 Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services	39.6x	16.0%	ر.س12.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4200 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.6x) compared to the peer average (23.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4200's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Specialty Retail Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4200 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.6x) compared to the Asian Specialty Retail industry average (17.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4200's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4200 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	39.6x
Fair PE Ratio	29.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4200 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4200 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.س125.60	ر.س126.18 +0.5%	8.7%	ر.س145.00	ر.س108.00	n/a	6
Dec ’25	ر.س117.40	ر.س121.34 +3.4%	6.3%	ر.س129.40	ر.س108.00	n/a	6
Nov ’25	ر.س138.40	ر.س120.27 -13.1%	6.3%	ر.س129.40	ر.س108.00	n/a	6
Oct ’25	ر.س131.40	ر.س120.02 -8.7%	6.1%	ر.س129.00	ر.س108.00	n/a	6
Sep ’25	ر.س124.40	ر.س120.02 -3.5%	6.1%	ر.س129.00	ر.س108.00	n/a	6
Aug ’25	ر.س111.60	ر.س113.83 +2.0%	7.8%	ر.س128.09	ر.س102.00	n/a	7
Jul ’25	ر.س119.60	ر.س112.95 -5.6%	7.7%	ر.س128.09	ر.س102.00	n/a	8
Jun ’25	ر.س111.40	ر.س112.95 +1.4%	7.7%	ر.س128.09	ر.س102.00	n/a	8
May ’25	ر.س126.75	ر.س106.02 -16.4%	14.8%	ر.س129.75	ر.س75.00	n/a	9
Apr ’25	ر.س121.35	ر.س106.02 -12.6%	14.8%	ر.س129.75	ر.س75.00	n/a	9
Mar ’25	ر.س135.30	ر.س106.60 -21.2%	15.6%	ر.س135.00	ر.س75.00	n/a	9
Feb ’25	ر.س124.05	ر.س101.06 -18.5%	16.8%	ر.س135.00	ر.س75.00	n/a	8
Jan ’25	ر.س136.05	ر.س95.01 -30.2%	10.5%	ر.س106.50	ر.س75.00	n/a	8
Dec ’24	ر.س96.90	ر.س94.77 -2.2%	10.5%	ر.س106.50	ر.س75.00	ر.س117.40	8
Nov ’24	ر.س86.40	ر.س93.37 +8.1%	9.2%	ر.س102.75	ر.س75.00	ر.س138.40	7
Oct ’24	ر.س103.80	ر.س94.94 -8.5%	13.0%	ر.س111.00	ر.س70.50	ر.س131.40	6
Sep ’24	ر.س102.00	ر.س94.94 -6.9%	13.0%	ر.س111.00	ر.س70.50	ر.س124.40	6
Aug ’24	ر.س88.05	ر.س93.98 +6.7%	14.1%	ر.س111.00	ر.س70.50	ر.س111.60	5
Jul ’24	n/a	ر.س86.44 0%	17.4%	ر.س111.00	ر.س70.50	ر.س119.60	4
Jun ’24	ر.س83.40	ر.س77.81 -6.7%	6.4%	ر.س84.00	ر.س70.50	ر.س111.40	4
May ’24	ر.س76.35	ر.س72.94 -4.5%	8.2%	ر.س80.25	ر.س64.50	ر.س126.75	4
Apr ’24	ر.س71.18	ر.س71.06 -0.2%	7.8%	ر.س76.50	ر.س62.25	ر.س121.35	4
Mar ’24	ر.س63.68	ر.س71.25 +11.9%	9.0%	ر.س76.50	ر.س62.25	ر.س135.30	3
Feb ’24	ر.س59.70	ر.س67.69 +13.4%	7.5%	ر.س75.00	ر.س62.25	ر.س124.05	4
Jan ’24	ر.س55.58	ر.س67.69 +21.8%	7.5%	ر.س75.00	ر.س62.25	ر.س136.05	4
Dec ’23	ر.س55.13	ر.س68.25 +23.8%	6.6%	ر.س75.00	ر.س63.75	ر.س96.90	4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/20 23:14
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Company is covered by 17 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Pratik Khandelwal	Al Rajhi Capital
Mazen Al-Sudairi	Al Rajhi Capital
Soha Saniour	Arqaam Capital Research Offshore S.A.L.