Jarir Marketing Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 4190 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

4190 (SAR12.82) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SAR14.18)

Is 4190 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4190 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4190 (SAR12.82) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SAR14.18)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4190 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4190?

Key metric: As 4190 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4190. This is calculated by dividing 4190's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4190's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	15.8x
Earnings	ر.س971.83m
Market Cap	ر.س15.38b

4190 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	14.4x
PEG Ratio	2.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4190's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4190 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	25.6x
4165 Al Majed for Oud	20.7x	11.1%	ر.س3.7b
4191 Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores	25.2x	n/a	ر.س609.0m
4200 Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services	41.3x	15.7%	ر.س13.2b
4003 United Electronics	15.3x	13.1%	ر.س7.4b
4190 Jarir Marketing	15.8x	7.3%	ر.س15.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4190 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the peer average (25.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4190's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Specialty Retail Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4190 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the Asian Specialty Retail industry average (17.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4190's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4190 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	15.8x
Fair PE Ratio	22.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4190 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4190 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.س12.82	ر.س15.56 +21.4%	10.6%	ر.س18.00	ر.س12.30	n/a	12
Nov ’25	ر.س13.24	ر.س15.56 +17.5%	10.6%	ر.س18.00	ر.س12.30	n/a	12
Oct ’25	ر.س13.20	ر.س15.87 +20.2%	12.2%	ر.س19.20	ر.س12.30	n/a	12
Sep ’25	ر.س12.94	ر.س15.98 +23.5%	12.1%	ر.س19.20	ر.س12.30	n/a	13
Aug ’25	ر.س12.94	ر.س15.94 +23.2%	11.9%	ر.س19.20	ر.س12.30	n/a	13
Jul ’25	ر.س12.66	ر.س16.50 +30.4%	13.2%	ر.س21.00	ر.س12.30	n/a	13
Jun ’25	ر.س12.72	ر.س17.02 +33.8%	10.4%	ر.س21.00	ر.س13.85	n/a	14
May ’25	ر.س13.58	ر.س16.88 +24.3%	10.9%	ر.س21.00	ر.س13.85	n/a	15
Apr ’25	ر.س14.46	ر.س16.99 +17.5%	12.0%	ر.س21.00	ر.س13.85	n/a	15
Mar ’25	ر.س15.58	ر.س17.10 +9.7%	11.6%	ر.س21.00	ر.س13.85	n/a	15
Feb ’25	ر.س15.14	ر.س17.26 +14.0%	11.5%	ر.س21.00	ر.س13.85	n/a	14
Jan ’25	ر.س15.62	ر.س17.46 +11.8%	10.9%	ر.س20.60	ر.س13.85	n/a	14
Dec ’24	ر.س14.58	ر.س17.45 +19.7%	10.8%	ر.س20.60	ر.س13.85	n/a	14
Nov ’24	ر.س14.26	ر.س17.31 +21.4%	11.0%	ر.س20.60	ر.س13.85	ر.س13.24	14
Oct ’24	ر.س14.42	ر.س17.45 +21.0%	11.8%	ر.س20.60	ر.س13.85	ر.س13.20	14
Sep ’24	ر.س14.76	ر.س17.45 +18.2%	11.8%	ر.س20.60	ر.س13.85	ر.س12.94	14
Aug ’24	ر.س15.60	ر.س18.16 +16.4%	9.3%	ر.س20.60	ر.س14.60	ر.س12.94	12
Jul ’24	n/a	ر.س18.16 0%	9.3%	ر.س20.60	ر.س14.60	ر.س12.66	12
Jun ’24	ر.س17.20	ر.س18.42 +7.1%	9.2%	ر.س20.97	ر.س15.30	ر.س12.72	12
May ’24	ر.س16.72	ر.س18.09 +8.2%	9.0%	ر.س20.97	ر.س15.30	ر.س13.58	13
Apr ’24	ر.س16.30	ر.س18.13 +11.2%	9.1%	ر.س21.00	ر.س15.30	ر.س14.46	13
Mar ’24	ر.س14.56	ر.س18.48 +26.9%	10.7%	ر.س22.00	ر.س15.30	ر.س15.58	12
Feb ’24	ر.س15.08	ر.س18.40 +22.0%	11.6%	ر.س22.00	ر.س15.30	ر.س15.14	13
Jan ’24	ر.س15.10	ر.س18.92 +25.3%	10.6%	ر.س22.00	ر.س15.30	ر.س15.62	13
Dec ’23	ر.س16.10	ر.س18.92 +17.5%	10.6%	ر.س22.00	ر.س15.30	ر.س14.58	13
Nov ’23	ر.س16.58	ر.س18.91 +14.1%	10.2%	ر.س22.00	ر.س15.30	ر.س14.26	14

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.