Jarir Marketing Valuation
Is 4190 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
5/6Valuation Score 5/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 4190 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 4190 (SAR12.66) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SAR13.69)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 4190 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4190?
Key metric: As 4190 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 4190's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 15.6x |
| Earnings | ر.س971.83m |
| Market Cap | ر.س15.19b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.5x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 14.2x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.5x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does 4190's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 25.6x | ||
4165 Al Majed for Oud | 21x | 11.1% | ر.س3.7b |
4191 Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores | 26.4x | n/a | ر.س629.0m |
4200 Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services | 39.6x | 16.0% | ر.س12.6b |
4003 United Electronics | 15.5x | 13.1% | ر.س7.5b |
4190 Jarir Marketing | 15.6x | 6.3% | ر.س15.2b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4190 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the peer average (25.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does 4190's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Specialty Retail Industry?
| 2 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4190 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the Asian Specialty Retail industry average (17.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 4190's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 15.6x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 22.5x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4190 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | ر.س12.66 | ر.س15.44 +21.9% | 10.8% | ر.س18.00 | ر.س12.30 | n/a | 11 |
| Dec ’25 | ر.س12.88 | ر.س15.44 +19.8% | 10.8% | ر.س18.00 | ر.س12.30 | n/a | 11 |
| Nov ’25 | ر.س13.24 | ر.س15.56 +17.5% | 10.6% | ر.س18.00 | ر.س12.30 | n/a | 12 |
| Oct ’25 | ر.س13.20 | ر.س15.87 +20.2% | 12.2% | ر.س19.20 | ر.س12.30 | n/a | 12 |
| Sep ’25 | ر.س12.94 | ر.س15.98 +23.5% | 12.1% | ر.س19.20 | ر.س12.30 | n/a | 13 |
| Aug ’25 | ر.س12.94 | ر.س15.94 +23.2% | 11.9% | ر.س19.20 | ر.س12.30 | n/a | 13 |
| Jul ’25 | ر.س12.66 | ر.س16.50 +30.4% | 13.2% | ر.س21.00 | ر.س12.30 | n/a | 13 |
| Jun ’25 | ر.س12.72 | ر.س17.02 +33.8% | 10.4% | ر.س21.00 | ر.س13.85 | n/a | 14 |
| May ’25 | ر.س13.58 | ر.س16.88 +24.3% | 10.9% | ر.س21.00 | ر.س13.85 | n/a | 15 |
| Apr ’25 | ر.س14.46 | ر.س16.99 +17.5% | 12.0% | ر.س21.00 | ر.س13.85 | n/a | 15 |
| Mar ’25 | ر.س15.58 | ر.س17.10 +9.7% | 11.6% | ر.س21.00 | ر.س13.85 | n/a | 15 |
| Feb ’25 | ر.س15.14 | ر.س17.26 +14.0% | 11.5% | ر.س21.00 | ر.س13.85 | n/a | 14 |
| Jan ’25 | ر.س15.62 | ر.س17.46 +11.8% | 10.9% | ر.س20.60 | ر.س13.85 | n/a | 14 |
| Dec ’24 | ر.س14.58 | ر.س17.45 +19.7% | 10.8% | ر.س20.60 | ر.س13.85 | ر.س12.88 | 14 |
| Nov ’24 | ر.س14.26 | ر.س17.31 +21.4% | 11.0% | ر.س20.60 | ر.س13.85 | ر.س13.24 | 14 |
| Oct ’24 | ر.س14.42 | ر.س17.45 +21.0% | 11.8% | ر.س20.60 | ر.س13.85 | ر.س13.20 | 14 |
| Sep ’24 | ر.س14.76 | ر.س17.45 +18.2% | 11.8% | ر.س20.60 | ر.س13.85 | ر.س12.94 | 14 |
| Aug ’24 | ر.س15.60 | ر.س18.16 +16.4% | 9.3% | ر.س20.60 | ر.س14.60 | ر.س12.94 | 12 |
| Jul ’24 | n/a | ر.س18.16 0% | 9.3% | ر.س20.60 | ر.س14.60 | ر.س12.66 | 12 |
| Jun ’24 | ر.س17.20 | ر.س18.42 +7.1% | 9.2% | ر.س20.97 | ر.س15.30 | ر.س12.72 | 12 |
| May ’24 | ر.س16.72 | ر.س18.09 +8.2% | 9.0% | ر.س20.97 | ر.س15.30 | ر.س13.58 | 13 |
| Apr ’24 | ر.س16.30 | ر.س18.13 +11.2% | 9.1% | ر.س21.00 | ر.س15.30 | ر.س14.46 | 13 |
| Mar ’24 | ر.س14.56 | ر.س18.48 +26.9% | 10.7% | ر.س22.00 | ر.س15.30 | ر.س15.58 | 12 |
| Feb ’24 | ر.س15.08 | ر.س18.40 +22.0% | 11.6% | ر.س22.00 | ر.س15.30 | ر.س15.14 | 13 |
| Jan ’24 | ر.س15.10 | ر.س18.92 +25.3% | 10.6% | ر.س22.00 | ر.س15.30 | ر.س15.62 | 13 |
| Dec ’23 | ر.س16.10 | ر.س18.92 +17.5% | 10.6% | ر.س22.00 | ر.س15.30 | ر.س14.58 | 13 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2024/12/20 23:39 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2024/12/19 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2024/09/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2023/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .
Analyst Sources
Jarir Marketing Company is covered by 27 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Jassim Al-Jubran | Aljazira Capital Company |
| Talha Nazar ul Haque | Aljazira Capital Company |
| Kais Kriaa | AlphaMena |