Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores Company (TADAWUL:4191)

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores Company (TADAWUL:4191) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores

The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (SAR, Millions)	ر.س37.6m	ر.س39.0m	ر.س41.1m	ر.س43.7m	ر.س46.8m	ر.س50.4m	ر.س54.4m	ر.س58.9m	ر.س63.9m	ر.س69.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 1.54%	Est @ 3.74%	Est @ 5.28%	Est @ 6.36%	Est @ 7.11%	Est @ 7.64%	Est @ 8.01%	Est @ 8.27%	Est @ 8.45%	Est @ 8.57%
Present Value (SAR, Millions) Discounted @ 15%	ر.س32.6	ر.س29.3	ر.س26.7	ر.س24.6	ر.س22.8	ر.س21.3	ر.س19.9	ر.س18.7	ر.س17.6	ر.س16.5

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ر.س230m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 8.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 15%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ر.س69m× (1 + 8.9%) ÷ (15%– 8.9%) = ر.س1.2b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ر.س1.2b÷ ( 1 + 15%)¹⁰= ر.س275m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is ر.س505m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ر.س26.3, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 15%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.011. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores, there are three relevant factors you should further examine:

1. Risks: Be aware that Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Saudi stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.