Can Mixed Fundamentals Have A Negative Impact on Almarai Company (TADAWUL:2280) Current Share Price Momentum?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
June 10, 2021
SASE:2280
Source: Shutterstock

Almarai's (TADAWUL:2280) stock is up by a considerable 23% over the past three months. But the company's key financial indicators appear to be differing across the board and that makes us question whether or not the company's current share price momentum can be maintained. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Almarai's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

See our latest analysis for Almarai

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Almarai is:

12% = ر.س2.0b ÷ ر.س17b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2021).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every SAR1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated SAR0.12 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Almarai's Earnings Growth And 12% ROE

When you first look at it, Almarai's ROE doesn't look that attractive. However, its ROE is similar to the industry average of 11%, so we won't completely dismiss the company. However, Almarai has seen a flattish net income growth over the past five years, which is not saying much. Bear in mind, the company's ROE is not very high. Hence, this provides some context to the flat earnings growth seen by the company.

We then compared Almarai's performance with the industry and found that the company has shrunk its earnings at a slower rate than the industry earnings which has seen its earnings shrink by 9.5% in the same period. While this is not particularly good, its not particularly bad either.

past-earnings-growth
SASE:2280 Past Earnings Growth June 11th 2021

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Has the market priced in the future outlook for 2280? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Almarai Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Despite having a normal three-year median payout ratio of 44% (implying that the company keeps 56% of its income) over the last three years, Almarai has seen a negligible amount of growth in earnings as we saw above. Therefore, there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Additionally, Almarai has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 52% over the next three years. Regardless, the ROE is not expected to change much for the company despite the higher expected payout ratio.

Summary

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Almarai. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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