ADES Holding Company Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

ADES Holding Company (TADAWUL:2382) missed earnings with its latest first-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. ADES Holding missed earnings this time around, with ر.س1.5b revenue coming in 6.4% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س0.18 also fell short of expectations by 11%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on ADES Holding after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for ADES Holding from twelve analysts is for revenues of ر.س6.54b in 2025. If met, it would imply an okay 6.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 9.6% to ر.س0.80. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ر.س6.66b and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س0.83 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for ADES Holding

The consensus price target held steady at ر.س18.75, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on ADES Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ر.س23.00 and the most bearish at ر.س15.10 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that ADES Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 26% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while ADES Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ADES Holding going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for ADES Holding (1 is concerning!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.