An Intrinsic Calculation For Public Joint-Stock Company Unipro (MCX:UPRO) Suggests It's 26% Undervalued

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Public Joint-Stock Company Unipro (MCX:UPRO) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

View our latest analysis for Unipro

Is Unipro fairly valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Levered FCF (RUB, Millions)	₽24.3b	₽26.8b	₽17.6b	₽18.3b	₽17.1b	₽16.7b	₽16.8b	₽17.3b	₽17.9b	₽18.8b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -6.5%	Est @ -2.35%	Est @ 0.55%	Est @ 2.58%	Est @ 4%	Est @ 5%
Present Value (RUB, Millions) Discounted @ 12%	₽21.6k	₽21.2k	₽12.5k	₽11.5k	₽9.6k	₽8.3k	₽7.5k	₽6.8k	₽6.3k	₽5.9k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₽111b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 7.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 12%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₁ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₽19b× (1 + 7.3%) ÷ (12%– 7.3%) = ₽406b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₽406b÷ ( 1 + 12%)¹⁰= ₽127b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₽238b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₽2.8, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 26% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Unipro as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Unipro, there are three important elements you should further research:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Unipro that you should be aware of.
2. Future Earnings: How does UPRO's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the MISX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.