Second Generating Company of the Electric Power Wholesale Market (MISX:OGKB) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of OGKB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

OGKB (RUB0.59) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (RUB5.38)

OGKB fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	3/6

OGKB Stock Overview

Public Joint-Stock Company "Second Generating Company of the Electric Power Wholesale Market", together with its subsidiaries, generates and sells electricity and thermal energy in Russia.

Rewards

Trading at 89.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings have grown 23% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 28.4% per year for the next 3 years

Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months

Unstable dividend track record

Second Generating Company of the Electric Power Wholesale Market Competitors

Energy and Electrification Company Samaraenergo

MISX:SAGO

₽4.3b

Rosseti Lenenergo

MISX:LSNG

₽72.4b

Kaluga Power Sale Company

MISX:KLSB

₽652.5m

Mosenergo

MISX:MSNG

₽76.8b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Second Generating Company of the Electric Power Wholesale Market
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	₽0.59
52 Week High	₽0.77
52 Week Low	₽0.28
Beta	0.67
1 Month Change	0%
3 Month Change	26.14%
1 Year Change	-16.37%
3 Year Change	16.08%
5 Year Change	11.06%
Change since IPO	-40.23%

Shareholder Returns

	OGKB	RU Renewable Energy	RU Market
7D	0%	1.2%	0%
1Y	-16.4%	6.5%	-33.5%

Return vs Industry: OGKB underperformed the Russian Renewable Energy industry which returned 9.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: OGKB exceeded the Russian Market which returned -33.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is OGKB's price volatile compared to industry and market?
OGKB volatility
OGKB Average Weekly Movement	9.4%
Renewable Energy Industry Average Movement	5.2%
Market Average Movement	4.9%
10% most volatile stocks in RU Market	8.7%
10% least volatile stocks in RU Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: OGKB is more volatile than 90% of Russian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: OGKB's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of Russian stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2005	7,341	n/a	https://www.ogk2.ru

Public Joint-Stock Company "Second Generating Company of the Electric Power Wholesale Market", together with its subsidiaries, generates and sells electricity and thermal energy in Russia. The company serves the wholesale market of electric energy. It also provides fire safety, firefighting, and rescue work services; and freight and passenger transportation, and rail freight services, as well as engages in designing and construction activity; and investment in securities.

Second Generating Company of the Electric Power Wholesale Market Fundamentals Summary

How do Second Generating Company of the Electric Power Wholesale Market's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
OGKB fundamental statistics
Market Cap	₽64.75b
Earnings (TTM)	₽15.61b
Revenue (TTM)	₽136.42b

4.1x

P/E Ratio

0.5x

P/S Ratio

Is OGKB overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
OGKB income statement (TTM)
Revenue	₽136.42b
Cost of Revenue	₽77.45b
Gross Profit	₽58.97b
Other Expenses	₽43.36b
Earnings	₽15.61b

Last Reported Earnings

Sep 30, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.14
Gross Margin	43.23%
Net Profit Margin	11.45%
Debt/Equity Ratio	24.9%

How did OGKB perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

10.2%

Current Dividend Yield

42%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is OGKB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OGKB?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for OGKB. This is calculated by dividing OGKB's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is OGKB's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	₽64.75b

OGKB key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2.7x
PEG Ratio	-0.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OGKB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

OGKB PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for OGKB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	6.8x
SAGO Energy and Electrification Company Samaraenergo	3.9x	n/a	₽4.3b
LSNG Rosseti Lenenergo	3.8x	n/a	₽72.4b
KLSB Kaluga Power Sale Company	7.6x	n/a	₽652.5m
MSNG Mosenergo	11.8x	-1.6%	₽76.8b
OGKB Second Generating Company of the Electric Power Wholesale Market	4.1x	-28.4%	₽64.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OGKB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.1x) compared to the peer average (6.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OGKB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Renewable Energy Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OGKB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.1x) compared to the European Renewable Energy industry average (26.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OGKB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OGKB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	4.1x
Fair PE Ratio	5.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: OGKB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OGKB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OGKB (RUB0.59) is trading below our estimate of fair value (RUB5.38)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OGKB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Second Generating Company of the Electric Power Wholesale Market forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-28.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: OGKB's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-28.4% per year).

Earnings vs Market: OGKB's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-28.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: OGKB's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: OGKB's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-2.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: OGKB's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.6% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: OGKB's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.3%).

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Past Performance

How has Second Generating Company of the Electric Power Wholesale Market performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

23.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: OGKB has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: OGKB's current net profit margins (11.4%) are higher than last year (9.6%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: OGKB's earnings have grown significantly by 23% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: OGKB's earnings growth over the past year (31.9%) exceeds its 5-year average (23% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: OGKB earnings growth over the past year (31.9%) underperformed the Renewable Energy industry 47.6%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: OGKB's Return on Equity (10.2%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Second Generating Company of the Electric Power Wholesale Market's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: OGKB's short term assets (RUB38.9B) exceed its short term liabilities (RUB13.0B).

Long Term Liabilities: OGKB's short term assets (RUB38.9B) do not cover its long term liabilities (RUB59.7B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: OGKB's net debt to equity ratio (24.9%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: OGKB's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 61.5% to 24.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: OGKB's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (84.1%).

Interest Coverage: OGKB's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (19.1x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Second Generating Company of the Electric Power Wholesale Market current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

10.24%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: OGKB's dividend (10.24%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Russian market (4.85%).

High Dividend: OGKB's dividend (10.24%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Russian market (13.13%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: OGKB's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: OGKB's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (42.5%), OGKB's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate cash payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Second Generating Company of the Electric Power Wholesale Market has no CEO, or we have no data on them.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: OGKB's management team is considered experienced (4.6 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: OGKB's board of directors are considered experienced (6.2 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/17 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/08 00:00
Earnings	2021/09/30
Annual Earnings	2020/12/31