Mosenergo (MISX:MSNG) - Share price, News & Analysis

MSNG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	3/6

MSNG Stock Overview

Public Joint Stock Company Mosenergo engages in the generation of heat and electric power in the Moscow City and Moscow region.

Rewards

Trading at 69.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 6.05% per year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.6% per year for the next 3 years

Dividend of 10.05% is not well covered by earnings

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Profit margins (2.9%) are lower than last year (5.9%)

Mosenergo Competitors

Territorial Generation Company No.2

MISX:TGKB

₽3.9b

E.ON

XTRA:EOAN

€25.9b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Mosenergo
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	₽1.77
52 Week High	₽2.62
52 Week Low	₽1.30
Beta	0.67
1 Month Change	9.60%
3 Month Change	-12.64%
1 Year Change	-20.00%
3 Year Change	-22.78%
5 Year Change	-25.79%
Change since IPO	-50.50%

Shareholder Returns

	MSNG	RU Electric Utilities	RU Market
7D	2.5%	2.2%	1.5%
1Y	-20.0%	-27.3%	-22.1%

Return vs Industry: MSNG exceeded the Russian Electric Utilities industry which returned -28.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MSNG exceeded the Russian Market which returned -23.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MSNG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MSNG volatility
MSNG Average Weekly Movement	13.8%
Electric Utilities Industry Average Movement	16.0%
Market Average Movement	15.9%
10% most volatile stocks in RU Market	22.6%
10% least volatile stocks in RU Market	10.0%

Stable Share Price: MSNG is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Russian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 14% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MSNG's weekly volatility has increased from 6% to 14% over the past year, but is still lower than 75% of Russian stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1886	8,483	Vitaly Yakovlev	https://www.mosenergo.ru

Public Joint Stock Company Mosenergo engages in the generation of heat and electric power in the Moscow City and Moscow region. It operates in two segments, Electric Energy and Heat Energy. The company owns 15 power plants with an operational capacity of approximately 12,825 megawatts of electricity; and 43, 211 gigacalories/hour of heat capacity.

Mosenergo Fundamentals Summary

How do Mosenergo's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MSNG fundamental statistics
Market Cap	₽70.99b
Earnings (TTM)	₽6.53b
Revenue (TTM)	₽222.30b

10.8x

P/E Ratio

0.3x

P/S Ratio

Is MSNG overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MSNG income statement (TTM)
Revenue	₽222.30b
Cost of Revenue	₽162.05b
Gross Profit	₽60.25b
Other Expenses	₽53.72b
Earnings	₽6.53b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Jul 29, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.16
Gross Margin	27.10%
Net Profit Margin	2.94%
Debt/Equity Ratio	2.3%

How did MSNG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

10.1%

Current Dividend Yield

109%

Payout Ratio

Valuation

Is Mosenergo undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: MSNG (RUB1.79) is trading below our estimate of fair value (RUB5.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MSNG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: MSNG is poor value based on its PE Ratio (10.9x) compared to the Russian Electric Utilities industry average (5.5x).

PE vs Market: MSNG is poor value based on its PE Ratio (10.9x) compared to the Russian market (6.8x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: MSNG's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: MSNG is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.2x) compared to the RU Electric Utilities industry average (0.6x).

Future Growth

How is Mosenergo forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-1.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MSNG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.6% per year).

Earnings vs Market: MSNG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MSNG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MSNG's revenue (6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Russian market (5.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MSNG's revenue (6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MSNG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (3%).

Past Performance

How has Mosenergo performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-28.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MSNG has a large one-off loss of RUB12.1B impacting its March 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: MSNG's current net profit margins (2.9%) are lower than last year (5.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MSNG's earnings have declined by 28% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: MSNG's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: MSNG had negative earnings growth (-44.6%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Electric Utilities industry average (5.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: MSNG's Return on Equity (2%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Mosenergo's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MSNG's short term assets (RUB101.3B) exceed its short term liabilities (RUB30.2B).

Long Term Liabilities: MSNG's short term assets (RUB101.3B) exceed its long term liabilities (RUB33.9B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MSNG's net debt to equity ratio (2.2%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: MSNG's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 16.6% to 2.3% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: MSNG's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (445.1%).

Interest Coverage: MSNG earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Mosenergo current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

10.14%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: MSNG's dividend (10.05%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Russian market (3.82%).

High Dividend: MSNG's dividend (10.05%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Russian market (11.17%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: MSNG's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: MSNG's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (109.2%), MSNG's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: At its current cash payout ratio (77.6%), MSNG's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Utilities industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

9.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Vitaly Yakovlev (49 yo)

14.17yrs

Tenure

Mr. Vitaly Georgievich Yakovlev serves as a General Director at TEK Mosenergo OAO. Mr. Yakovlev has been General Director and a Director of Open Joint Stock Company of Power and Electrification Mosenergo s...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MSNG's management team is seasoned and experienced (9.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: MSNG's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.9 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/18 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/18 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31