PhosAgro (MISX:PHOR) - Share price, News & Analysis

PHOR fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	4/6

PHOR Stock Overview

Public Joint-Stock Company PhosAgro, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and distribution of apatite concentrate and mineral fertilizers in Russia and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 41.5% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 666% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 16.2% per year for the next 3 years

Has a high level of debt

Dividend of 11.88% is not well covered by earnings

PhosAgro Competitors

Saudi Basic Industries

SASE:2010

ر.س358.2b

Nutrien

TSX:NTR

CA$68.7b

Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden)

SASE:1211

ر.س137.8b

Mosaic

NYSE:MOS

US$21.0b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for PhosAgro
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	₽7,450.00
52 Week High	₽10,097.00
52 Week Low	₽3,700.00
Beta	0.061
1 Month Change	6.43%
3 Month Change	34.72%
1 Year Change	63.49%
3 Year Change	214.08%
5 Year Change	216.35%
Change since IPO	533.57%

Shareholder Returns

	PHOR	RU Chemicals	RU Market
7D	-3.7%	-2.1%	2.7%
1Y	63.5%	70.4%	-22.6%

Return vs Industry: PHOR underperformed the Russian Chemicals industry which returned 70.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PHOR exceeded the Russian Market which returned -22.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is PHOR's price volatile compared to industry and market?
PHOR volatility
PHOR Average Weekly Movement	15.4%
Chemicals Industry Average Movement	12.7%
Market Average Movement	11.6%
10% most volatile stocks in RU Market	18.7%
10% least volatile stocks in RU Market	7.0%

Stable Share Price: PHOR is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Russian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 15% a week.

Volatility Over Time: PHOR's weekly volatility has increased from 8% to 15% over the past year, but is still lower than 75% of Russian stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2001	n/a	Mikhail Rybnikov	https://www.phosagro.com

Public Joint-Stock Company PhosAgro, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and distribution of apatite concentrate and mineral fertilizers in Russia and internationally. It operates in two segments, Phosphate-Based Products and Nitrogen-Based Products. The Phosphate-Based Products segment produces and distributes ammophos, diammoniumphosphate, sodium tripolyphosphate, and other phosphate based and complex fertilizers; and apatite concentrate extracted from the apatite-nepheline ore.

PhosAgro Fundamentals Summary

How do PhosAgro's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
PHOR fundamental statistics
Market Cap	₽964.78b
Earnings (TTM)	₽129.70b
Revenue (TTM)	₽420.49b

7.4x

P/E Ratio

2.3x

P/S Ratio

Is PHOR overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
PHOR income statement (TTM)
Revenue	₽420.49b
Cost of Revenue	₽219.18b
Gross Profit	₽201.31b
Other Expenses	₽71.61b
Earnings	₽129.70b

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.00k
Gross Margin	47.88%
Net Profit Margin	30.84%
Debt/Equity Ratio	103.1%

How did PHOR perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

11.9%

Current Dividend Yield

88%

Payout Ratio

Does PHOR pay a reliable dividends?

See PHOR dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy PHOR by to receive an upcoming dividend?
PhosAgro dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Jul 08 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Jul 12 2022
Days until Ex dividend	45 days
Days until Dividend pay date	49 days

Does PHOR pay a reliable dividends?

See PHOR dividend history and benchmarks

Valuation

Is PhosAgro undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

41.5%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: PHOR (RUB7450) is trading below our estimate of fair value (RUB12730.63)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PHOR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: PHOR's PE Ratio (7.4x) is in line with the Russian Chemicals industry average.

PE vs Market: PHOR is poor value based on its PE Ratio (7.4x) compared to the Russian market (6.8x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: PHOR's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: PHOR is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (5.9x) compared to the RU Chemicals industry average (1.8x).

Future Growth

How is PhosAgro forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-16.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PHOR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-16.2% per year).

Earnings vs Market: PHOR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-16.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PHOR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PHOR's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-8.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PHOR's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-8.1% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PHOR's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15%).

Past Performance

How has PhosAgro performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

17.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PHOR has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: PHOR's current net profit margins (30.8%) are higher than last year (6.7%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PHOR's earnings have grown by 17.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: PHOR's earnings growth over the past year (666%) exceeds its 5-year average (17.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: PHOR earnings growth over the past year (666%) exceeded the Chemicals industry 53.1%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst PHOR's Return on Equity (78.76%) is outstanding, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.

Financial Health

How is PhosAgro's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PHOR's short term assets (RUB127.2B) exceed its short term liabilities (RUB66.4B).

Long Term Liabilities: PHOR's short term assets (RUB127.2B) do not cover its long term liabilities (RUB174.4B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PHOR's net debt to equity ratio (89.9%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: PHOR's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 123.1% to 103.1% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: PHOR's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (74.3%).

Interest Coverage: PHOR's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (44.9x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is PhosAgro current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

11.88%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: PHOR's dividend (11.88%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Russian market (3.8%).

High Dividend: PHOR's dividend (11.88%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Russian market (11.02%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: PHOR's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: PHOR's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: At its current payout ratio (88.4%), PHOR's payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (148.6%), PHOR's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Mikhail Rybnikov (46 yo)

0.17

Tenure

Mr. Mikhail Konstantinovich Rybnikov has been Chief Executive Officer for Public Joint-Stock Company PhosAgro since March 11, 2022. Mr. Rybnikov has been the Chairman of Management Board at PJSC PhosAgro s...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: PHOR's management team is considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: PHOR's board of directors are considered experienced (6.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/22 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/20 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31