Polyus (MISX:PLZL) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of PLZL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

PLZL (RUB8464) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (RUB5644.61)

PLZL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	0/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	3/6

PLZL Stock Overview

Public Joint Stock Company Polyus, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the extraction, refining, and sale of gold.

Rewards

Revenue is forecast to grow 7.71% per year

Earnings have grown 13.2% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.7% per year for the next 3 years

Has a high level of debt

Unstable dividend track record

Polyus Competitors

Seligdar

MISX:SELG

₽39.7b

Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel

MISX:GMKN

₽2.6t

Severstal

MISX:CHMF

₽695.3b

PhosAgro

MISX:PHOR

₽1.0t

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Polyus
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	₽8,464.00
52 Week High	₽16,160.00
52 Week Low	₽8,362.50
Beta	-0.031
1 Month Change	-25.75%
3 Month Change	-32.29%
1 Year Change	-40.55%
3 Year Change	36.52%
5 Year Change	111.87%
Change since IPO	453.56%

Shareholder Returns

	PLZL	RU Metals and Mining	RU Market
7D	-10.3%	-7.2%	-10.6%
1Y	-40.6%	-32.4%	-32.8%

Return vs Industry: PLZL underperformed the Russian Metals and Mining industry which returned -30.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PLZL underperformed the Russian Market which returned -32.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is PLZL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
PLZL volatility
PLZL Average Weekly Movement	5.3%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement	5.9%
Market Average Movement	6.2%
10% most volatile stocks in RU Market	10.6%
10% least volatile stocks in RU Market	4.1%

Stable Share Price: PLZL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Russian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: PLZL's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2005	n/a	Alexey Vostokov	https://www.polyus.com

Public Joint Stock Company Polyus, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the extraction, refining, and sale of gold. The company has primary operations in Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk, Magadan, and Amur regions, as well as the Republic of Sakha in Russia. It also engages in the research and exploration works.

Polyus Fundamentals Summary

How do Polyus's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
PLZL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$20.79b
Earnings (TTM)	US$2.27b
Revenue (TTM)	US$4.97b

9.2x

P/E Ratio

4.2x

P/S Ratio

Is PLZL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
PLZL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$4.97b
Cost of Revenue	US$1.24b
Gross Profit	US$3.73b
Other Expenses	US$1.46b
Earnings	US$2.27b

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	16.77
Gross Margin	75.03%
Net Profit Margin	45.71%
Debt/Equity Ratio	99.4%

How did PLZL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

5.0%

Current Dividend Yield

46%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is PLZL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PLZL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for PLZL. This is calculated by dividing PLZL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is PLZL's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$20.79b

PLZL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	4.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	7x
PEG Ratio	-2.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PLZL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

PLZL PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for PLZL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	5.5x
SELG Seligdar	3.9x	n/a	₽39.7b
GMKN Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel	7.3x	-6.3%	₽2.6t
CHMF Severstal	3.1x	-23.8%	₽695.3b
PHOR PhosAgro	7.8x	-16.2%	₽1.0t
PLZL Polyus	9.2x	-3.7%	₽1.1t

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PLZL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x) compared to the peer average (5.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PLZL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PLZL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x) compared to the Russian Metals and Mining industry average (4.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PLZL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PLZL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.2x
Fair PE Ratio	8.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PLZL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PLZL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PLZL (RUB8464) is trading above our estimate of fair value (RUB5644.61)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PLZL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: PLZL's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is Polyus forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-3.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PLZL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3.7% per year).

Earnings vs Market: PLZL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PLZL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PLZL's revenue (7.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Russian market (2.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PLZL's revenue (7.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PLZL's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (30.4%)

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Past Performance

How has Polyus performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

13.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PLZL has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: PLZL's current net profit margins (45.7%) are higher than last year (32%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PLZL's earnings have grown by 13.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: PLZL's earnings growth over the past year (42.1%) exceeds its 5-year average (13.2% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: PLZL earnings growth over the past year (42.1%) underperformed the Metals and Mining industry 141.2%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: PLZL's Return on Equity (65.1%) is considered outstanding.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Polyus's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PLZL's short term assets ($2.3B) exceed its short term liabilities ($1.0B).

Long Term Liabilities: PLZL's short term assets ($2.3B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($3.5B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PLZL's net debt to equity ratio (61%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: PLZL had negative shareholder equity 5 years ago, but is now positive and has therefore improved.

Debt Coverage: PLZL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (84.4%).

Interest Coverage: PLZL's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (18.1x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Polyus's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

5.03%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: PLZL's dividend (5.03%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Russian market (4.42%).

High Dividend: PLZL's dividend (5.03%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Russian market (12.07%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: PLZL has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: PLZL's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 9 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (45.9%), PLZL's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (57.9%), PLZL's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Alexey Vostokov

0.25

Tenure

Mr. Alexey Alesksandrovich Vostokov serves as Director at Public Joint Stock Company Polyus since June 06, 2022 and serves as the Chief Executive Officer from April 12, 2022. He joined the Public Joint Sto...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: PLZL's management team is considered experienced (3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: PLZL's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 0.1 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/01 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31