As you might know, Public Joint-Stock Company Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS (MCX:MOEX) recently reported its first-quarter numbers. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of ₽13b and statutory earnings per share of ₽11.14. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the consensus from Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS' ten analysts is for revenues of ₽48.3b in 2021, which would reflect a small 6.1% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be ₽11.69, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₽48.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₽11.54 in 2021. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at ₽172. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS analyst has a price target of ₽200 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₽134. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 8.0% by the end of 2021. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 2.0% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.3% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₽172, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS
Public Joint-Stock Company Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS, an integrated exchange, provides competitive trading, clearing, settlement, depository, and information services to financial market participants.
Outstanding track record and good value.