Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Oil Terminal S.A. (BVB:OIL) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Oil Terminal
What Is Oil Terminal's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2020 Oil Terminal had RON50.5m of debt, an increase on RON47.4m, over one year. However, it does have RON12.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about RON38.5m.
How Healthy Is Oil Terminal's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Oil Terminal had liabilities of RON25.5m due within 12 months and liabilities of RON78.3m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had RON12.0m in cash and RON20.7m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by RON71.1m.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of RON116.5m. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Oil Terminal has net debt worth 1.6 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 3.4 times the interest expense. It seems that the business incurs large depreciation and amortisation charges, so maybe its debt load is heavier than it would first appear, since EBITDA is arguably a generous measure of earnings. The bad news is that Oil Terminal saw its EBIT decline by 16% over the last year. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Oil Terminal will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last two years, Oil Terminal burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
To be frank both Oil Terminal's EBIT growth rate and its track record of converting EBIT to free cash flow make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its net debt to EBITDA is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, it seems to us that Oil Terminal's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Oil Terminal (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About BVB:OIL
Oil Terminal
Operates a terminal for import, export, and transit of crude oil, petroleum, petrochemical, liquid chemical products, and other supply services in south-eastern Europe.
Solid track record with adequate balance sheet.