Qatar Gas Transport Company Limited (Nakilat) (QPSC) Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of QGTS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

QGTS (QAR4.22) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (QAR1.3)

Is QGTS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of QGTS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: QGTS (QAR4.22) is trading above our estimate of fair value (QAR1.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: QGTS is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for QGTS?

Key metric: As QGTS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for QGTS. This is calculated by dividing QGTS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is QGTS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	14.2x
Earnings	ر.ق1.64b
Market Cap	ر.ق23.41b

QGTS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	11.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	14.9x
PEG Ratio	1.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does QGTS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for QGTS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	27.1x
QFLS Qatar Fuel Company Q.P.S.C. (WOQOD)	14.5x	4.3%	ر.ق14.7b
GISS Gulf International Services Q.P.S.C	9.8x	13.9%	ر.ق5.7b
601872 China Merchants Energy Shipping	12.1x	19.2%	CN¥52.8b
ENLC EnLink Midstream	71.9x	61.3%	US$7.2b
QGTS Qatar Gas Transport Company Limited (Nakilat) (QPSC)	14.2x	10.0%	ر.ق23.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: QGTS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the peer average (27.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does QGTS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Oil and Gas Industry?

8 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

8 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: QGTS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the Asian Oil and Gas industry average (10.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is QGTS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

QGTS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	14.2x
Fair PE Ratio	12.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: QGTS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst QGTS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.ق4.22	ر.ق5.16 +22.2%	8.3%	ر.ق5.60	ر.ق4.45	n/a	6
Nov ’25	ر.ق4.28	ر.ق5.16 +20.5%	8.3%	ر.ق5.60	ر.ق4.45	n/a	6
Oct ’25	ر.ق4.33	ر.ق5.18 +19.5%	7.8%	ر.ق5.60	ر.ق4.55	n/a	6
Sep ’25	ر.ق4.50	ر.ق5.18 +15.0%	7.8%	ر.ق5.60	ر.ق4.55	n/a	6
Aug ’25	ر.ق4.49	ر.ق5.08 +13.1%	11.4%	ر.ق5.60	ر.ق3.96	n/a	6
Jul ’25	ر.ق4.62	ر.ق5.08 +9.9%	11.4%	ر.ق5.60	ر.ق3.96	n/a	6
Jun ’25	ر.ق3.96	ر.ق5.08 +28.1%	11.4%	ر.ق5.60	ر.ق3.96	n/a	6
May ’25	ر.ق3.96	ر.ق4.66 +17.6%	11.3%	ر.ق5.10	ر.ق3.65	n/a	6
Apr ’25	ر.ق3.95	ر.ق4.66 +18.0%	11.3%	ر.ق5.10	ر.ق3.65	n/a	6
Mar ’25	ر.ق4.00	ر.ق4.66 +16.5%	11.3%	ر.ق5.10	ر.ق3.65	n/a	6
Feb ’25	ر.ق3.43	ر.ق4.39 +27.9%	7.0%	ر.ق4.80	ر.ق4.02	n/a	6
Jan ’25	ر.ق3.52	ر.ق4.33 +23.0%	8.1%	ر.ق4.82	ر.ق3.83	n/a	5
Dec ’24	ر.ق3.24	ر.ق4.33 +33.6%	8.1%	ر.ق4.82	ر.ق3.83	n/a	5
Nov ’24	ر.ق3.49	ر.ق4.33 +23.9%	8.1%	ر.ق4.82	ر.ق3.83	ر.ق4.28	5
Oct ’24	ر.ق3.73	ر.ق4.60 +23.5%	10.1%	ر.ق5.50	ر.ق4.10	ر.ق4.33	6
Sep ’24	ر.ق3.71	ر.ق4.60 +24.1%	10.1%	ر.ق5.50	ر.ق4.10	ر.ق4.50	6
Aug ’24	ر.ق4.17	ر.ق4.46 +6.8%	12.5%	ر.ق5.50	ر.ق3.69	ر.ق4.49	6
Jul ’24	ر.ق4.07	ر.ق4.45 +9.3%	12.5%	ر.ق5.50	ر.ق3.69	ر.ق4.62	6
Jun ’24	ر.ق3.99	ر.ق4.36 +9.2%	13.0%	ر.ق5.50	ر.ق3.69	ر.ق3.96	6
May ’24	ر.ق3.90	ر.ق4.36 +11.8%	13.0%	ر.ق5.50	ر.ق3.69	ر.ق3.96	6
Apr ’24	ر.ق3.46	ر.ق4.13 +19.5%	7.2%	ر.ق4.55	ر.ق3.65	ر.ق3.95	5
Mar ’24	ر.ق3.66	ر.ق4.13 +12.9%	7.2%	ر.ق4.55	ر.ق3.65	ر.ق4.00	5
Feb ’24	ر.ق3.79	ر.ق4.06 +7.0%	8.9%	ر.ق4.55	ر.ق3.43	ر.ق3.43	5
Jan ’24	ر.ق3.66	ر.ق4.06 +10.8%	8.9%	ر.ق4.55	ر.ق3.43	ر.ق3.52	5
Dec ’23	ر.ق3.90	ر.ق4.05 +3.8%	8.6%	ر.ق4.50	ر.ق3.43	ر.ق3.24	5
Nov ’23	ر.ق4.10	ر.ق4.05 -1.3%	9.6%	ر.ق4.50	ر.ق3.43	ر.ق3.49	4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.