Results: Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

A week ago, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. (ELI:GALP) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Galp Energia SGPS delivered a significant beat with revenue hitting €5.6b and statutory EPS reaching €0.36, both beating estimates by more than 10%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Galp Energia SGPS after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Galp Energia SGPS

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 15 analysts covering Galp Energia SGPS, is for revenues of €20.0b in 2025. This implies a small 7.3% reduction in Galp Energia SGPS' revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 32% to €1.18 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €20.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.16 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €20.69. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Galp Energia SGPS at €27.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €16.50. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.9% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 12% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 1.4% annually for the foreseeable future. The forecasts do look bearish for Galp Energia SGPS, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. The consensus also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it is performing in line with expectations. Plus, our data suggests that Galp Energia SGPS is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Galp Energia SGPS going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Galp Energia SGPS you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.