Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. (ELI:GALP) Annual Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Last week, you might have seen that Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. (ELI:GALP) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.5% to €15.41 in the past week. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at €21b, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Galp Energia SGPS

Taking into account the latest results, the 18 analysts covering Galp Energia SGPS provided consensus estimates of €19.2b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 9.9% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 31% to €1.02 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €20.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.13 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the €20.21 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Galp Energia SGPS at €26.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €15.40. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 9.9% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 12% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 0.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that Galp Energia SGPS' revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our analysts estimates suggest that Galp Energia SGPS is still expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Galp Energia SGPS analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Galp Energia SGPS that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.