Pkp Cargo Valuation

Is PKP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PKP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PKP (PLN12.04) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PLN42.18)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PKP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PKP?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

PKP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA3.2x
PEG Ratio0.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PKP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PKP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.8x
STX Stalexport Autostrady
6.6xn/azł717.1m
OTS OT Logistics
2.8xn/azł444.0m
XBS XBS PRO-LOG
12xn/azł112.0m
ENT Enter Air Sp. z o.o
5.9xn/azł1.2b
PKP Pkp Cargo
6.6x34.2%zł539.2m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PKP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.6x) compared to the peer average (6.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PKP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Transportation Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a16.4%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a16.4%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PKP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.6x) compared to the European Transportation industry average (11x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PKP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PKP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.6x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate PKP's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PKP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentzł12.04
zł12.00
-0.3%
7.5%zł12.90zł11.10n/a2
Apr ’25zł13.08
zł12.00
-8.3%
7.5%zł12.90zł11.10n/a2
Mar ’25zł13.98
zł13.75
-1.6%
19.3%zł16.40zł11.10n/a2
Feb ’25zł14.14
zł13.75
-2.8%
19.3%zł16.40zł11.10n/a2
Jan ’25zł14.58
zł13.75
-5.7%
19.3%zł16.40zł11.10n/a2
Dec ’24zł15.20
zł16.00
+5.3%
2.5%zł16.40zł15.60n/a2
Nov ’24zł15.36
zł16.80
+9.4%
7.1%zł18.00zł15.60n/a2
Oct ’24zł14.72
zł16.80
+14.1%
7.1%zł18.00zł15.60n/a2
Sep ’24zł15.06
zł16.80
+11.6%
7.1%zł18.00zł15.60n/a2
Aug ’24zł16.52
zł16.80
+1.7%
7.1%zł18.00zł15.60n/a2
Jul ’24zł17.16
zł16.80
-2.1%
7.1%zł18.00zł15.60n/a2
Jun ’24zł17.60
zł16.80
-4.5%
7.1%zł18.00zł15.60n/a2
May ’24zł15.82
zł14.55
-8.0%
7.2%zł15.60zł13.50zł12.062
Apr ’24zł16.01
zł14.80
-7.6%
5.4%zł15.60zł14.00zł13.082
Mar ’24zł15.20
zł14.55
-4.3%
7.2%zł15.60zł13.50zł13.982
Feb ’24zł14.48
zł14.55
+0.5%
7.2%zł15.60zł13.50zł14.142
Jan ’24zł14.50
zł14.55
+0.3%
7.2%zł15.60zł13.50zł14.582
Dec ’23zł14.24
zł13.39
-6.0%
11.7%zł15.60zł12.16zł15.203
Nov ’23zł12.20
zł11.25
-7.8%
5.9%zł12.16zł10.60zł15.363
Oct ’23zł10.80
zł11.25
+4.2%
5.9%zł12.16zł10.60zł14.723
Sep ’23zł12.30
zł11.25
-8.5%
5.9%zł12.16zł10.60zł15.063
Aug ’23zł14.69
zł11.25
-23.4%
5.9%zł12.16zł10.60zł16.523
Jul ’23zł10.99
zł11.25
+2.4%
5.9%zł12.16zł10.60zł17.163
Jun ’23zł11.80
zł12.92
+9.5%
15.2%zł16.21zł11.00zł17.604
May ’23zł11.65
zł12.92
+10.9%
15.2%zł16.21zł11.00zł15.824

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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