Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to zł13.14, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 13.9x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Transportation industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 25% over the past three years. New Risk • Jun 02
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 155% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (9.4% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Jun 01
First quarter 2026 earnings released: zł1.02 loss per share (vs zł1.09 loss in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: zł1.02 loss per share (improved from zł1.09 loss in 1Q 2025). Revenue: zł897.0m (down 3.3% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: zł45.8m (loss narrowed 5.8% from 1Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.1% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 60% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • May 25
Pkp Cargo S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 19, 2026 Pkp Cargo S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 19, 2026, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time. New Risk • Dec 05
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Polish stocks, typically moving 7.0% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Dec 03
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: zł0.17 (vs zł7.65 loss in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: zł0.17 (up from zł7.65 loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue: zł943.0m (down 12% from 3Q 2024). Net income: zł7.50m (up zł350.1m from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 0.8% (up from net loss in 3Q 2024). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Transportation industry in Europe are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 103 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • Oct 01
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: zł0.69 (vs zł7.48 loss in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: zł0.69 (up from zł7.48 loss in 2Q 2024). Revenue: zł893.3m (down 20% from 2Q 2024). Net income: zł30.7m (up zł365.7m from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 3.4% (up from net loss in 2Q 2024). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.8% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 130 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Aug 27
Pkp Cargo S.A. to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Sep 30, 2025 Pkp Cargo S.A. announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Sep 30, 2025 Reported Earnings • Jun 02
First quarter 2025 earnings released: zł1.09 loss per share (vs zł2.64 loss in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: zł1.09 loss per share (improved from zł2.64 loss in 1Q 2024). Revenue: zł927.9m (down 21% from 1Q 2024). Net loss: zł48.6m (loss narrowed 59% from 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 9.7% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.4% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 124 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • May 21
Pkp Cargo Plans to Sell Some of Its Assets One of the elements of Pkp Cargo S.A. (WSE:PKP) economic recovery strategy is the sale of part of its assets. Therefore the carrier plans to sell a 9.3% stake in Euroterminal Slawków, and its subsidiary PKP Cargo Connect wants to sell a 50% stake in Transshipment Terminals Slawków-Medyka (TPSM). The two entities, that PKP Cargo wants to resign from, are linked with each other in terms of business, operational and capital relations. Talks on the sale of shares in Euroterminal Slawków are held with the Industrial Development Agency. Before finalizing the possible transaction, PKP Cargo must obtain approvals from corporate bodies and the administrator of a remedial estate. New Risk • Dec 27
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Polish stocks, typically moving 6.8% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Dec 01
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: zł7.65 loss per share (vs zł0.17 loss in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: zł7.65 loss per share (further deteriorated from zł0.17 loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue: zł1.07b (down 16% from 3Q 2023). Net loss: zł342.6m (loss widened zł334.8m from 3Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.4% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Price Target Changed • Nov 17
Price target increased by 66% to zł21.50 Up from zł12.95, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 58% above last closing price of zł13.64. The company posted earnings per share of zł1.83 last year. Announcement • Jun 21
Marcin Wojewódka acquired an unknown minority stake in Pkp Cargo S.A. (WSE:PKP). Marcin Wojewódka acquired an unknown minority stake in Pkp Cargo S.A. (WSE:PKP) recently on June 20, 2024. The Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) is analyzing the recent acquisitions of shares of PKP Cargo by Marcin Wojewódka. Announcement • Jun 14
PKP Polskie Linie Kolejowe S.A. signed a letter of intent to acquire CARGOTOR Sp. z o.o. from Pkp Cargo S.A. (WSE:PKP). PKP Polskie Linie Kolejowe S.A. signed a letter of intent to acquire CARGOTOR Sp. z o.o. from Pkp Cargo S.A. (WSE:PKP) on June 12, 2024. The expected completion of the transaction is December 31, 2024. The Letter of Intent does not constitute a legally binding commitment of any of the parties. New Risk • Jun 03
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Polish stocks, typically moving 7.0% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.3x net interest cover). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.0% average weekly change). Announcement • May 31
Pkp Cargo S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2024 Pkp Cargo S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2024. Reported Earnings • May 29
First quarter 2024 earnings released: zł2.64 loss per share (vs zł2.33 profit in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: zł2.64 loss per share (down from zł2.33 profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue: zł1.18b (down 25% from 1Q 2023). Net loss: zł118.1m (down 213% from profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 73% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 16
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to zł14.70, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Transportation industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 25% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • May 16
Price target increased by 9.2% to zł13.10 Up from zł12.00, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of zł13.24. Stock is down 28% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of zł3.18 for next year compared to zł1.83 last year. Announcement • May 11
Pkp Cargo S.A. Provides Earnings Guidance for the First Quarter of 2024 Pkp Cargo S.A. provided earnings guidance for the first quarter of 2024. For the quarter, the company estimates an EBIT loss of PLN 96.8 million (EUR 22.54 million). Revenue from client agreements amounted to PLN 1.18 billion (EUR 274.97 million), and net loss amounted to PLN 118.1 million (EUR 27.5 million). Reported Earnings • Apr 24
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: zł1.83 (vs zł3.31 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: zł1.83 (down from zł3.31 in FY 2022). Revenue: zł5.49b (up 1.9% from FY 2022). Net income: zł82.1m (down 45% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 1.5% (down from 2.7% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 5.4% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 94% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Apr 19
Price target decreased by 13% to zł12.00 Down from zł13.75, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of zł12.30. Stock is down 20% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of zł1.30 for next year compared to zł3.30 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 06
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 665%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from zł5.75b to zł5.47b. EPS estimate rose from zł0.17 to zł1.30. Net income forecast to shrink 63% next year vs 0.1% growth forecast for Transportation industry in Poland . Consensus price target down from zł16.80 to zł13.75. Share price fell 12% to zł14.60 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • Dec 04
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 4.1%. The fair value is estimated to be zł18.19, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 14% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.7% per annum. Earnings is forecast to decline by 14% per annum over the same time period. Price Target Changed • Dec 04
Price target decreased by 18% to zł13.75 Down from zł16.80, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 9.5% below last closing price of zł15.20. Stock is down 1.9% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of zł1.30 for next year compared to zł3.30 last year. New Risk • Dec 01
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 2.9x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.9x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 28% per year for the foreseeable future. Reported Earnings • Dec 01
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: zł0.17 loss per share (vs zł0.84 profit in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: zł0.17 loss per share (down from zł0.84 profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue: zł1.27b (down 6.9% from 3Q 2022). Net loss: zł7.80m (down 121% from profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 7.1% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 95% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Aug 28
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: zł0.12 (vs zł0.12 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: zł0.12 (up from zł0.12 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: zł1.34b (up 3.9% from 2Q 2022). Net income: zł5.50m (up 5.8% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 0.4% (in line with 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 83% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Jun 05
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: zł2.33 (vs zł1.06 loss in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: zł2.33 (up from zł1.06 loss in 1Q 2022). Revenue: zł1.56b (up 34% from 1Q 2022). Net income: zł104.2m (up zł151.8m from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 6.7% (up from net loss in 1Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.4% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 61% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jun 04
Pkp Cargo S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 29, 2023 Pkp Cargo S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 29, 2023, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time. Price Target Changed • May 10
Price target increased by 7.1% to zł15.85 Up from zł14.80, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 8.8% below last closing price of zł17.38. Stock is up 47% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of zł1.26 next year compared to a net loss per share of zł5.03 last year. Buying Opportunity • Mar 31
Now 23% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 10%. The fair value is estimated to be zł20.71, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Buying Opportunity • Mar 10
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 5.8%. The fair value is estimated to be zł20.71, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Announcement • Jan 31
Pkp Cargo S.A. (WSE:PKP) agreed to acquire Assets Of Alstom Pojazdy Szynowe from Bombardier Transportation Polska Sp. z o.o. for PLN 13.5 million. Pkp Cargo S.A. (WSE:PKP) agreed to acquire Assets Of Alstom Pojazdy Szynowe from Bombardier Transportation Polska Sp. z o.o. for PLN 13.5 million on January 30, 2023. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 01
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 57% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from zł4.80b to zł5.23b. EPS estimate increased from zł0.59 to zł0.93 per share. Net income forecast to grow 83% next year vs 5.4% growth forecast for Transportation industry in Poland. Consensus price target up from zł11.85 to zł13.39. Share price rose 5.2% to zł14.31 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 29
Price target increased to zł13.39 Up from zł11.25, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 7.7% below last closing price of zł14.50. Stock is down 6.6% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of zł0.59 next year compared to a net loss per share of zł5.03 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 26
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: zł0.84 (vs zł0.53 loss in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: zł0.84 (up from zł0.53 loss in 3Q 2021). Revenue: zł1.36b (up 24% from 3Q 2021). Net income: zł37.7m (up zł61.2m from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 2.8% (up from net loss in 3Q 2021). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.7% growth forecast for the Transportation industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 11% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Price Target Changed • Jul 01
Price target decreased to zł11.25 Down from zł12.92, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of zł10.99. Stock is down 48% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of zł0.58 next year compared to a net loss per share of zł5.03 last year. Reported Earnings • Jun 01
First quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2022 results: zł1.06 loss per share (up from zł1.59 loss in 1Q 2021). Revenue: zł1.17b (up 17% from 1Q 2021). Net loss: zł47.6m (loss narrowed 33% from 1Q 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 8.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 44%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to stay flat compared to a 11% growth forecast for the industry in Poland. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 43 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target decreased to zł12.92 Down from zł15.58, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 11% above last closing price of zł11.60. Stock is down 39% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of zł0.58 next year compared to a net loss per share of zł5.03 last year. Buying Opportunity • Jan 20
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 23%. The fair value is estimated to be zł18.25, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.6% per annum over the last 3 years. The company became loss making over the last 3 years. Reported Earnings • Nov 27
Third quarter 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2021 results: zł0.53 loss per share (down from zł0.35 profit in 3Q 2020). Revenue: zł1.10b (up 8.9% from 3Q 2020). Net loss: zł23.5m (down 251% from profit in 3Q 2020). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 27%. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 27%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 5.7%, compared to a 19% growth forecast for the industry in Poland. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 71 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Aug 27
Price target decreased to zł14.14 Down from zł15.58, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 23% below last closing price of zł18.36. Stock is up 41% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Aug 21
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: zł1.31 loss per share (vs zł1.73 loss in 2Q 2020) The company reported a solid second quarter result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: zł1.05b (up 13% from 2Q 2020). Net loss: zł58.7m (loss narrowed 24% from 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 74 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • May 27
First quarter 2021 earnings released: zł1.59 loss per share (vs zł2.55 loss in 1Q 2020) The company reported a decent first quarter result with reduced losses and improved control over expenses, although revenues were weaker. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: zł996.0m (down 3.8% from 1Q 2020). Net loss: zł71.3m (loss narrowed 38% from 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 76 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • May 15
Price target increased to zł16.94 Up from zł14.45, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 13% below last closing price of zł19.46. Stock is up 78% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Apr 04
Full year 2020 earnings released: zł5.01 loss per share (vs zł0.80 profit in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over costs. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: zł4.24b (down 11% from FY 2019). Net loss: zł224.3m (down zł260.3m from profit in FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 68 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 12
New 90-day high: zł16.32 The company is up 39% from its price of zł11.74 on 13 November 2020. The Polish market is up 13% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Transportation industry, which is up 15% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is zł22.45 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 04
New 90-day high: zł13.16 The company is up 11% from its price of zł11.88 on 04 September 2020. The Polish market is up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Transportation industry, which is up 22% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is zł51.58 per share. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 22
Revenue and earnings miss expectations Revenue missed analyst estimates by 0.007%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 48%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 4.3% compared to a 6.2% decline forecast for the Transportation industry in Poland. Reported Earnings • Nov 22
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: EPS zł0.35 The company reported a poor third quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: zł1.01b (down 15% from 3Q 2019). Net income: zł15.6m (down 69% from 3Q 2019). Profit margin: 1.5% (down from 4.3% in 3Q 2019). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 78% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 39% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 12
New 90-day low: zł10.60 The company is down 24% from its price of zł14.00 on 14 July 2020. The Polish market is down 4.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Transportation industry, which is up 3.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is zł5.12 per share. Price Target Changed • Sep 24
Price target raised to zł16.85 Up from zł15.59, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. The new target price is 52% above the current share price of zł11.12. As of last close, the stock is down 56% over the past year.