While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Read-Gene S.A. (WSE:RDG) share price up 23% in a single quarter. But in truth the last year hasn’t been good for the share price. After all, the share price is down 28% in the last year, significantly under-performing the market.
We don’t think Read-Gene’s revenue of zł3,364,592 is enough to establish significant demand. This state of affairs suggests that venture capitalists won’t provide funds on attractive terms. So it seems shareholders are too busy dreaming about the progress to come than dwelling on the current (lack of) revenue. For example, they may be hoping that Read-Gene comes up with a great new product, before it runs out of money.
As a general rule, if a company doesn’t have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt.
Our data indicates that Read-Gene had zł12,321,987 more in total liabilities than it had cash, when it last reported in September 2018. That makes it extremely high risk, in our view. But since the share price has dived -28% in the last year, it looks like some investors think it’s time to abandon ship, so to speak. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Read-Gene’s cash levels have changed over time.
In reality it’s hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Given that situation, would you be concerned if it turned out insiders were relentlessly selling stock? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Read-Gene shareholders are down 28% for the year. Unfortunately, that’s worse than the broader market decline of 0.2%. Having said that, it’s inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year’s performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 4.8% over the last half decade. We realise that Buffett has said investors should ‘buy when there is blood on the streets’, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. You could get a better understanding of Read-Gene’s growth by checking out this more detailed historical graph of earnings, revenue and cash flow.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on PL exchanges.
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If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.