Stock Analysis

These 4 Measures Indicate That KGHM Polska Miedz (WSE:KGH) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

WSE:KGH
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Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. (WSE:KGH) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

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How Much Debt Does KGHM Polska Miedz Carry?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2022 KGHM Polska Miedz had zł6.10b of debt, an increase on zł5.44b, over one year. On the flip side, it has zł2.73b in cash leading to net debt of about zł3.37b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
WSE:KGH Debt to Equity History November 17th 2022

A Look At KGHM Polska Miedz's Liabilities

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that KGHM Polska Miedz had liabilities of zł10.2b falling due within a year, and liabilities of zł11.3b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of zł2.73b as well as receivables valued at zł1.81b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by zł16.9b.

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of zł24.5b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on KGHM Polska Miedz's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

KGHM Polska Miedz has a low debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.47. But the really cool thing is that it actually managed to receive more interest than it paid, over the last year. So there's no doubt this company can take on debt while staying cool as a cucumber. The good news is that KGHM Polska Miedz has increased its EBIT by 4.7% over twelve months, which should ease any concerns about debt repayment. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if KGHM Polska Miedz can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, KGHM Polska Miedz's free cash flow amounted to 33% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

Our View

Both KGHM Polska Miedz's ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT and its net debt to EBITDA gave us comfort that it can handle its debt. Having said that, its level of total liabilities somewhat sensitizes us to potential future risks to the balance sheet. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about KGHM Polska Miedz's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for KGHM Polska Miedz (of which 2 don't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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Discover if KGHM Polska Miedz might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.