Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Grupa Azoty S.A. (WSE:ATT) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Grupa Azoty
What Is Grupa Azoty's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2022 Grupa Azoty had zł5.64b of debt, an increase on zł4.77b, over one year. However, it also had zł674.1m in cash, and so its net debt is zł4.97b.
A Look At Grupa Azoty's Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, Grupa Azoty had liabilities of zł8.67b due within 12 months, and liabilities of zł6.17b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had zł674.1m in cash and zł4.49b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total zł9.68b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the zł3.86b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Grupa Azoty would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
We'd say that Grupa Azoty's moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 1.8), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its commanding EBIT of 32.3 times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. Notably, Grupa Azoty's EBIT launched higher than Elon Musk, gaining a whopping 298% on last year. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Grupa Azoty can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Grupa Azoty actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
Grupa Azoty's level of total liabilities was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. There's no doubt that its ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT is pretty flash. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Grupa Azoty is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Grupa Azoty (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About WSE:ATT
Grupa Azoty
Manufactures and sells fertilizers, plastics, and other chemicals in Poland, Germany, South America, Asia, other European Union countries, and internationally.
Very undervalued with reasonable growth potential.