Is Pepees (WSE:PPS) A Risky Investment?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Pepees S.A. (WSE:PPS) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Pepees

What Is Pepees's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2020 Pepees had debt of zł70.0m, up from zł48.6m in one year. On the flip side, it has zł14.6m in cash leading to net debt of about zł55.4m.

A Look At Pepees's Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Pepees had liabilities of zł87.1m due within 12 months and liabilities of zł52.3m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of zł14.6m and zł31.9m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling zł93.0m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of zł127.3m. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Pepees's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 1.9 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 4.7 times last year. It seems that the business incurs large depreciation and amortisation charges, so maybe its debt load is heavier than it would first appear, since EBITDA is arguably a generous measure of earnings. Importantly, Pepees's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 67% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Pepees will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Pepees reported free cash flow worth 14% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say Pepees's EBIT growth rate was disappointing. Having said that, its ability handle its debt, based on its EBITDA, isn't such a worry. We're quite clear that we consider Pepees to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Pepees (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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