Improved Earnings Required Before Orlen S.A. (WSE:PKN) Shares Find Their Feet

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 2.5x Orlen S.A. (WSE:PKN) may be sending very bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Poland have P/E ratios greater than 13x and even P/E's higher than 27x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.

While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Orlen's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It seems that many are expecting the dour earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Orlen

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Does Growth Match The Low P/E?

Orlen's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling earnings, and importantly, perform much worse than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 54%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 245% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 21% as estimated by the eight analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 10% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.

With this information, we are not surprised that Orlen is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.

The Key Takeaway

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Orlen maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast for sliding earnings, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Orlen (1 is significant!) that you need to be mindful of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Orlen's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.