MOL Magyar Olaj- és Gázipari Nyilvánosan Muködo Részvénytársaság Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of MOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MOL (PLN28.3) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (PLN48.21)

Is MOL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MOL (PLN28.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PLN48.21)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MOL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MOL?

Key metric: As MOL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MOL. This is calculated by dividing MOL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MOL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	3.5x
Earnings	Ft486.42b
Market Cap	Ft1.70t

MOL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2.4x
PEG Ratio	-0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MOL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MOL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	15.8x
PKN Orlen	16.2x	17.6%	zł60.6b
INA INA-Industrija nafte d.d	17.5x	n/a	€4.5b
600256 Guanghui Energy	21.1x	33.6%	CN¥49.1b
SNP OMV Petrom	8.5x	3.0%	RON 45.8b
MOL MOL Magyar Olaj- és Gázipari Nyilvánosan Muködo Részvénytársaság	3.5x	-7.5%	zł1.7t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.5x) compared to the peer average (15.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MOL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

5 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

5 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.5x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MOL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MOL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	3.5x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MOL's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MOL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	zł28.30	zł35.58 +25.7%	10.5%	zł40.63	zł27.62	n/a	10
Nov ’25	zł27.96	zł36.23 +29.6%	11.0%	zł41.23	zł28.03	n/a	9
Oct ’25	zł28.94	zł37.11 +28.2%	10.1%	zł41.66	zł28.32	n/a	9
Sep ’25	zł29.20	zł38.32 +31.2%	6.5%	zł43.46	zł34.83	n/a	9
Aug ’25	zł30.58	zł38.40 +25.6%	6.6%	zł43.63	zł35.46	n/a	9
Jul ’25	zł31.70	zł39.22 +23.7%	6.5%	zł43.81	zł35.60	n/a	7
Jun ’25	zł31.00	zł38.51 +24.2%	8.9%	zł44.05	zł32.00	n/a	8
May ’25	zł33.52	zł36.98 +10.3%	14.6%	zł43.70	zł26.80	n/a	7
Apr ’25	zł32.40	zł36.98 +14.1%	14.6%	zł43.70	zł26.80	n/a	7
Mar ’25	zł32.00	zł35.65 +11.4%	16.7%	zł44.96	zł26.97	n/a	8
Feb ’25	zł32.80	zł36.64 +11.7%	15.7%	zł46.61	zł27.96	n/a	9
Jan ’25	zł32.00	zł36.64 +14.5%	15.7%	zł46.61	zł27.96	n/a	9
Dec ’24	zł31.80	zł36.64 +15.2%	15.7%	zł46.61	zł27.96	n/a	9
Nov ’24	zł33.38	zł37.74 +13.1%	20.7%	zł54.96	zł27.47	zł27.96	9
Oct ’24	zł33.00	zł37.45 +13.5%	16.6%	zł49.69	zł27.80	zł28.94	10
Sep ’24	zł31.18	zł37.35 +19.8%	15.1%	zł48.70	zł27.25	zł29.20	9
Aug ’24	zł31.78	zł37.45 +17.8%	15.3%	zł49.58	zł27.74	zł30.58	10
Jul ’24	zł36.48	zł38.93 +6.7%	14.3%	zł49.07	zł28.55	zł31.70	11
Jun ’24	zł35.18	zł39.44 +12.1%	13.0%	zł49.36	zł31.80	zł31.00	11
May ’24	zł33.52	zł39.88 +19.0%	13.4%	zł49.22	zł31.71	zł33.52	11
Apr ’24	zł31.12	zł40.14 +29.0%	13.2%	zł49.65	zł32.01	zł32.40	11
Mar ’24	zł33.70	zł41.09 +21.9%	14.4%	zł52.60	zł32.66	zł32.00	11
Feb ’24	zł32.78	zł38.59 +17.7%	14.6%	zł49.74	zł30.89	zł32.80	11
Jan ’24	zł29.98	zł38.50 +28.4%	14.3%	zł48.93	zł30.38	zł32.00	10
Dec ’23	zł32.78	zł37.72 +15.1%	14.4%	zł47.80	zł29.68	zł31.80	10
Nov ’23	zł29.38	zł37.85 +28.8%	13.4%	zł48.57	zł30.16	zł33.38	10

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.