Should Weakness in Amica S.A.'s (WSE:AMC) Stock Be Seen As A Sign That Market Will Correct The Share Price Given Decent Financials?

With its stock down 6.8% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Amica (WSE:AMC). However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Amica's ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Check out our latest analysis for Amica

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Amica is:

11% = zł111m ÷ zł968m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2020).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every PLN1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of PLN0.11.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of Amica's Earnings Growth And 11% ROE

To begin with, Amica seems to have a respectable ROE. Even when compared to the industry average of 11% the company's ROE looks quite decent. Despite the modest returns, Amica's five year net income growth was quite low, averaging at only 2.3%. So, there could be some other factors at play that could be impacting the company's growth. For instance, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Amica's reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 12% in the same period, which is not something we like to see.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is Amica fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Amica Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Amica's low three-year median payout ratio of 23% (or a retention ratio of 77%) should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings to fuel its growth. This should be reflected in its earnings growth number, but that's not the case. Therefore, there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Moreover, Amica has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 30% over the next three years. Despite the higher expected payout ratio, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much.

Summary

In total, it does look like Amica has some positive aspects to its business. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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