Is Newag S.A. (WSE:NWG) Potentially Undervalued?

While Newag S.A. (WSE:NWG) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw a significant share price rise of 45% in the past couple of months on the WSE. The recent jump in the share price has meant that the company is trading at close to its 52-week high. Less-covered, small caps tend to present more of an opportunity for mispricing due to the lack of information available to the public, which can be a good thing. So, could the stock still be trading at a low price relative to its actual value? Today we will analyse the most recent data on Newag’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

Check out our latest analysis for Newag

What's The Opportunity In Newag?

The stock is currently trading at zł48.40 on the share market, which means it is overvalued by 39% compared to our intrinsic value of PLN34.84. This means that the opportunity to buy Newag at a good price has disappeared! Furthermore, Newag’s share price also seems relatively stable compared to the rest of the market, as indicated by its low beta. If you believe the share price should eventually reach its true value, a low beta could suggest it is unlikely to rapidly do so anytime soon, and once it’s there, it may be hard to fall back down into an attractive buying range.

What does the future of Newag look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with a negative profit growth of -0.2% expected next year, near-term growth certainly doesn’t appear to be a driver for a buy decision for Newag. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? If you believe NWG should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. Given the risk from a negative growth outlook, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on NWG for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. Its price has risen beyond its true value, on top of a negative future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?

Since timing is quite important when it comes to individual stock picking, it's worth taking a look at what those latest analysts forecasts are. At Simply Wall St, we have the analysts estimates which you can view by clicking here.

If you are no longer interested in Newag, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.